Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
5,102 total articles
Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack described February's employment figures as disappointing while noting broader signs of economic improvement. Speaking on Bloomberg TV, she emphasized that the labor market is stabilizing even as inflation has shown virtually no progress toward the Fed's goal over the past two years. Hammack said poli…
Pacific Investment Management Co. analysts say direct-lending funds loosened credit standards after a wave of fundraising following the 2008 financial crisis and are likely due for a stress test. The note warns that a full-blown default cycle could challenge the sector's resilience to both sector-specific disruption and broader economic shocks, fue…
February's employment figures showed an unforeseen decline in nonfarm payrolls and a modest rise in unemployment, complicating the Federal Reserve's policy calculus. The weak report, coupled with higher oil prices tied to the conflict in Iran, weighed on equity markets and drew varied responses from economists and strategists about the timing and s…
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said monetary policy does not require immediate adjustment as inflation remains "too high." She argued that the combination of lingering inflation, a softening jobs market and rate reductions enacted last year leaves policy in a neutral position, and under her baseline she expects rates to be…
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said she does not see an immediate need to alter monetary policy as inflation remains elevated. Speaking at the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum in New York, Hammack argued the Fed's current stance is well positioned to balance the twin concerns of high inflation and a softening labor market and ur…
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said she does not see an immediate need to lower interest rates, emphasizing a patient, deliberate approach and the need for clear evidence that inflation is returning to the 2% target. Collins cited upside risks to inflation, recent labor-market resilience, and geopolitical-driven energy price…
A class action lawsuit filed Thursday in the U.S. District Court for the Central District of California accuses prediction market operator Kalshi of refusing to pay $54 million to customers who bet that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would leave office before March 1, 2026. The suit contends Kalshi invoked a 'death carveout' to avoid…
Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins said on March 6 that she expects policy rates to remain at their current, mildly restrictive levels for an extended period unless there is clear evidence that inflation is drifting back toward the 2% target. She emphasized a patient, deliberate approach, noted continued upside risks to inflation and a …
The Global Anglican Future Conference (GAFCON), a conservative alliance of mainly African and Asian churches, has urged members to boycott gatherings convened by the Archbishop of Canterbury and to stop financial contributions to the current leadership. The move follows the formation of a rival council and three days of meetings in Nigeria that hig…
European Central Bank policy is currently sound, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel said, but recent geopolitical tensions tied to Iran have raised the prospect of an energy-driven rise in consumer prices that warrants close monitoring. While staff projections show inflation aligning with the 2% target over the medium term and expectations remain anc…
The U.S. Army abruptly canceled a large-scale training event for the headquarters element of the 82nd Airborne Division at Fort Bragg, North Carolina. The move has generated speculation inside the Defense Department about a potential deployment to the Middle East as tensions with Iran increase. As of Friday, no deployment orders had been issued, an…
Canada's minister responsible for U.S. trade relations, Dominic LeBlanc, will travel to Washington to meet U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to discuss the looming trilateral review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA/CUSMA) and bilateral tariff issues. The meeting comes as the review deadline of July 1 approaches and after t…
Morgan Stanley's client note estimates that a sustained oil price increase would hit Asian growth hardest due to heavy reliance on imported energy, modestly lift inflation region-wide, and produce more muted effects in the United States. The euro area is identified as facing a complex mix of slower growth and higher inflation.
A group of economists found that melding anonymized private data from payroll processor ADP, Vanguard 401(k) activity and JPMorgan checking accounts with government employment and inflation reports produces more accurate forecasts of monthly private nonfarm payrolls, subsequent revisions, and six-month job growth. The team says private signals - es…
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said the weak February jobs report calls into question recent signs that the U.S. labor market was stabilizing. She cautioned against reading too much into a single month but highlighted details in the report that complicate interpretation, and reiterated that the Fed faces risks on both sid…
Electronic warfare tactics in the Persian Gulf have degraded navigation systems and contributed to a dramatic fall in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Missiles and drone strikes have produced multiple attacks and fatalities on oil tankers, while widespread GPS and AIS jamming has affected more than 1,100 vessels in recent days.
As the Middle East conflict extends into a second week, investors have shifted into a narrow set of highly-trafficked defensive positions. The dollar has rallied, gold and other previously crowded trades have taken losses while many measures of market plumbing and systemic stress remain subdued. Surging oil prices and rising inflation expectations …
Rising wholesale gas prices driven by disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and halted Qatari LNG output have left Britain more exposed to an energy-driven inflation surge than many of its European peers. A heavier reliance on gas for electricity and heating, limited storage, regulated quarterly household price caps and already elev…
National Economic Council member Kevin Hassett told CNBC he still expects the U.S. economy to grow 4% this year, even after February nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 when forecasts had pointed to an increase of 58,000. Hassett recommended assessing job-market trends using averaged data and cited a pickup in productivity. He also said there are no cu…
The U.S. dollar advanced against several major currencies after data showed the economy lost 92,000 jobs in February and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The weaker-than-expected payrolls report prompted markets to move up the timeline for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, with futures now pricing a restart of easing in September rather than O…
Oil prices jumped more than 27% in the week following the outbreak of conflict in Iran, prompting speculation that the European Central Bank may need to raise interest rates to counter energy-driven inflation. Senior ECB figures urged caution, saying decisions will be guided by evolving data and the persistence of the shock rather than a pre-set po…
San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report heightens her concern about the labor market but does not, by itself, justify an immediate cut in interest rates. Daly cited two-sided risks from still-elevated inflation and a recent runup in oil prices tied to the Iran conflict, and she advocated pausin…
U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 92,000 in February, far below consensus expectations for a 59,000 gain, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% versus an anticipated 4.3%. Stock futures weakened, Treasury yields moved erratically and the dollar remained flat. Economists warn the report raises fresh questions about the labor market and m…
President Donald Trump declared that no agreement with Iran will be acceptable unless it involves the country's unconditional surrender and a change in leadership. He said on Truth Social that, following surrender and the selection of new leaders, the U.S. and its allies will help rebuild Iran's economy. The comments come nearly a week after coordi…
U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 92,000 in February while the unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to 4.4%. The decline reflected a combination of a 31,000-worker strike at Kaiser Permanente, severe winter weather, and statistical adjustments following an updated birth-and-death model and delayed population controls. Economists say the jobles…
