Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
5,102 total articles
Economists expect U.S. job growth to ease in February, with the unemployment rate projected to remain at 4.3%. Forecasters point to a normalization in healthcare hiring after an outsized January increase, potential drag from weather and regional strike action, and new Census-driven population controls that will revise labor force estimates. Rising …
The Asian Development Bank's chief economist said a short-lived Middle East conflict and a roughly month-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz would produce only a modest, temporary slowdown in developing Asia's growth, but prolonged disruption could significantly raise energy costs, disturb trade routes and financial markets, and force policy inter…
The U.S. dollar remained broadly steady in early Asian trading and was set for its largest weekly gain in more than a year as renewed conflict in the Middle East spurred demand for safe-haven assets. Rising oil prices pushed inflation risks higher for energy-importing economies and altered timing expectations for rate moves by major central banks.
A federal judge has directed the U.S. government to begin reimbursing importers for emergency tariffs imposed during the Trump administration that the U.S. Supreme Court ruled unlawful in late February. Budget analysts estimate the refunds could total between $168 billion and $182 billion. The mechanism for distributing those refunds remains unclea…
Equity markets fell on Thursday while a fresh jump in oil sent government bond yields higher, as expanding conflict in the Middle East stoked investor worries about energy availability, rising inflation and slowing economic growth. Attention now shifts to U.S. February payrolls for a clearer read on the labour market and whether the war-driven shoc…
President Donald Trump told attendees at a public event that U.S. military operations in Iran are ahead of schedule and have significantly reduced Tehran's missile, drone, naval and air capabilities. He said U.S. forces, working with Israeli partners, have hit missile launchers within minutes, destroyed a large share of missiles and launchers, and …
A federal judge approved a $29 million payment to Pfizer to resolve its challenge to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s distribution of leftover funds from the 2013 SAC Capital settlement. The award stems from $75.2 million remaining after SAC’s $601.8 million settlement tied to insider trading by former SAC employee Mathew Martoma; Pfiz…
Investor attention is set on the widening conflict in the Middle East and upcoming U.S. consumer price index data for February. A U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran has pushed oil sharply higher and rattled equity markets, while traders weigh whether inflation readings will validate or temper hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts later in the year.
U.S. banking regulators clarified that banks will not be required to hold extra capital against losses on blockchain-based securities, stating their capital rules are technology neutral. The Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency issued guidance after growing bank interest in representin…
European and Arab officials briefed on recent stability assessments report that air strikes by U.S. and Israeli forces have not produced visible cracks in the Iranian regime’s hold on power. Command and control systems are reported to be resilient, enabling rapid retaliatory strikes, while domestic security measures inside Iran have visibly increas…
President Donald Trump announced that Senator Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma will take over as United States Secretary of Homeland Security on March 31, 2026. The move accompanies the reassignment of current DHS Secretary Kristi Noem to a Special Envoy role for a newly announced Western Hemisphere security initiative called The Shield of the Americas…
Israel's defence minister said a mission to kill Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was approved in November with an initial timetable for mid-2026. The plan was later shared with the United States and accelerated to around January following protests inside Iran. Khamenei was killed during the opening hours of a U.S.-Israeli air campaign, described…
Two Democratic lawmakers are preparing a bill to limit prediction market activity after reports that well-timed wagers preceded recent U.S.-Israeli air strikes in Iran. The proposal aims to close perceived loopholes left by the Commodity Exchange Act and respond to high-profile profitable trades tied to geopolitical events.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde told a Bologna audience the ECB has no pre-determined reaction to tensions stemming from the conflict in the Middle East and will take policy decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis, weighing all available data. She warned that the widening U.S.-Israeli war on Iran could push up inflation and underm…
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde told an audience in Bologna that the central bank will continue a flexible, data-led policy stance and will not follow a predetermined path as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East evolve. She said decisions will be taken meeting by meeting and the ECB will carefully assess how current shocks may…
President Donald Trump told Axios he must be involved in approving Iran’s next supreme leader, calling Mojtaba Khamenei unacceptable and comparing the matter to U.S. intervention in Venezuela. Iran has delayed announcing a successor while Israeli strikes targeted the clerical body overseeing the selection. Betting markets show a two-thirds probabil…
A media report citing a person familiar with the matter says the U.S. Department of Justice plans to release an additional batch of documents tied to Jeffrey Epstein 'fairly soon.' The disclosure follows the House Oversight Committee's move to subpoena Attorney General Pam Bondi for questioning on the department's handling of related investigations…
Global markets moved unevenly on March 5 as the conflict involving Iran lifted oil prices, strengthened the dollar and prompted renewed selling in government bonds. Asian markets saw sharp swings, led by a dramatic rebound in South Korea after a presidential intervention, while European and U.S. equities lost momentum as investors weighed the econo…
OpenAI is working on a new audio model — referred to as bidirectional or BiDi — intended to allow ChatGPT to process speech continuously and alter its responses in real time when a user interjects. The current Advanced Voice Mode operates on a turn-taking basis and cannot handle interruptions smoothly. The BiDi prototype shows promise for more natu…
Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin warned that recent signs of elevated inflation and stronger payroll data may change the Federal Reserve's current risk calculus. Barkin said upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures numbers and the potential inflationary effect of higher gas prices amid the U.S.-Israel war with Iran could make policym…
Brazil's central bank monetary policy director Nilton David said the institution will adopt a cautious stance when evaluating incoming data after oil prices rose amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. While the bank's January guidance that an easing cycle would begin remains in place as part of a 'calibration' process, officials are focused on t…
Renewed conflict in the Middle East has pushed investors back toward perceived safe assets, but the reactions across the dollar, government bonds, gold, major currency havens and defensive stocks have been uneven. The dollar has gained ground, sovereigns are trading on inflation and fiscal cues, gold remains a volatile yet credible refuge, classic …
Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin said persistent inflation and firmer-than-expected labor readings have the potential to change the Federal Reserve's assessment of risks, particularly as the U.S. conflict with Iran risks pushing consumer prices higher. Barkin highlighted that last year’s rate cuts reflected a view that labor-market ris…
Morgan Stanley's strategists have abandoned their prior call for two European Central Bank rate cuts in 2026, citing a renewed risk of higher inflation after a joint U.S.-Israel strike on Iran pushed oil and natural gas prices up and created a shipping bottleneck in the Strait of Hormuz. The bank's analysts now expect policy to remain on hold throu…
Bank of America economists say the recent U.S.-Iran tensions have not changed their baseline view for the U.S. economy. The bank warns that macro risks remain modest unless crude prices rise sharply, with the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts and the dollar's path the main near-term variables to watch.
