Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
7,195 total articles
Revised fiscal projections and official budget estimates indicate that Greece will lose its long-held position as the euro zone’s most indebted country by the end of this year, with Italian public debt expected to remain higher through the middle of the decade. Greece’s debt ratio is projected to fall to around 137% of GDP this year, while Italy’s …
A Bank of England survey released on Friday shows British companies have lifted their expectations for selling prices over the next 12 months, while their outlook for sales growth weakened to its lowest point since July 2020. Other business gauges echoed stronger pricing signals, even as concerns about demand temper how aggressively firms plan to r…
The Bank of Russia cut its key rate by 50 basis points to 14.5% on Friday, a move in line with market expectations. Governor Elvira Nabiullina warned that the Iran war and a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz create uncertainty that could blunt the benefits of higher commodity prices. The central bank raised its 2026 average oil price forecast to $65…
The Bank of England is set to keep Bank Rate unchanged this week as policymakers weigh how the Iran war is transmitting to domestic inflation and growth. With uncertainty around the duration and pass-through of higher energy costs, the Monetary Policy Committee is likely to reiterate readiness to act while markets continue to price in possible rate…
Global equity markets refocused on the artificial intelligence surge as hyperscaler spending expectations and strong semiconductor earnings outpaced concerns about stalled U.S.-Iran talks and a near halt of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Intel's upbeat revenue outlook triggered buying in Asian markets, pushing Japan, South Korea and Taiw…
The Bank of Japan is broadly expected to hold its short-term policy rate at 0.75% when it concludes its April 28 meeting, marking a likely third straight pause following a 25 basis-point move in December. While markets moved away from pricing an immediate additional hike after cautious messaging from senior officials, the BOJ is still expected to s…
The European Central Bank is widely expected to keep its key rate at 2% at its upcoming meeting after a ceasefire in the Iran conflict trimmed the immediate inflationary threat from oil markets. While the short-term outlook has improved and markets have pared back near-term rate bets, open questions remain about the durability of the peace, when oi…
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to an all-time low of 49.8 in April as households focused on rising energy and commodity costs linked to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. One-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.7%, while five-year expectations rose to 3.5%, reinforcing market views that the Federal Reserve is unlik…
The Justice Department's Washington office has closed its investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over renovation cost concerns, U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro said. She has referred the matter to the Fed's Office of Inspector General, which is already reviewing cost increases on the headquarters overhaul. The move removes a key obstacl…
China's central government increased fiscal spending in the first quarter, with outlays up 2.6% year-on-year to 7.47 trillion yuan as authorities seek to bolster growth amid mounting global risks. Fiscal revenue climbed 2.4% to 6.16 trillion yuan, while land-sale receipts fell sharply, further straining local government finances.
Japan’s core consumer price inflation slowed to 1.8% year-on-year in March, below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for the second month running, as fuel subsidies and softer food inflation counterbalanced energy-driven price pressures. Broader price indicators remain elevated and wholesale data show sharp increases in services and freight costs linked…
Japan will establish a dedicated task force to tackle cybersecurity threats to its financial infrastructure after concerns emerged about vulnerabilities linked to Anthropic's Mythos AI model. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said regulators, the central bank, top banks and the Japan Exchange Group agreed to the move at a meeting addressing the pot…
Iran has presented a fresh proposal to the United States that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and bring an end to the current war, according to U.S. and other sources. The offer reportedly includes a postponement of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. Diplomatic efforts remain stalled despite a recently extended ceasefire and aborted follow…
The U.S. dollar opened the week stronger after talks to end the Middle East conflict faltered, leaving oil prices higher and the Japanese yen trading close to the 160-per-dollar level ahead of the Bank of Japan's policy decision. Investors are watching a sequence of central bank meetings for guidance on how the conflict and rising energy costs will…
Global military spending rose 2.9% in 2025 to $2.89 trillion, marking the 11th consecutive year of growth and lifting defense outlays to 2.5% of global GDP. The increase occurred even as U.S. spending fell 7.5% to $954 billion following a halt in new financial military assistance to Ukraine; Europe recorded a 14% surge to $864 billion that was the …
Sen. Thom Tillis announced he will withdraw his blockade of Kevin Warsh’s nomination to lead the Federal Reserve after the Justice Department ceased a criminal inquiry into current Chair Jerome Powell over alleged construction cost overruns at the Fed’s Washington headquarters. Tillis said the DOJ assurance removes the single condition he had requi…
A powerful U.S. equity advance faces a significant test as an outsized slate of corporate earnings led by major technology companies converges with a Federal Reserve policy meeting and critical economic releases. Stocks have rebounded sharply this month, but investor focus will shift to profit reports from several megacaps, guidance on capital spen…
Kevin Warsh's nomination hearing on April 21 revived a longstanding question: do changes at the top of the U.S. Federal Reserve precipitate market stress? A Deutsche Bank review of over a century of data shows a mixed record, with some chairs encountering severe market episodes shortly after taking office and others seeing major shocks arrive much …
UBS Investment Research says higher energy prices linked to the Iran conflict are driving headline inflation higher, but the shock is supply-driven and central banks in the US and Europe are unlikely to respond with significant rate hikes. Policy makers are more likely to look through the short-lived impact on core inflation, while investors adjust…
A fresh supply shock from disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz has pushed short-term inflation expectations higher, but constrained wage growth and several longer-term structural forces suggest a major, persistent overshoot in consumer-price inflation is unlikely. Fiscal imbalances, fading globalization, shifting demographics and a burst of AI-relat…
UBS Global Research finds the Federal Reserve's internal weighting between inflation and unemployment has shifted: after a period in which unemployment carried slightly more influence over policymakers' median rate forecasts, a new stagflationary shock tied to the Middle East appears to be nudging emphasis back toward inflation. The June Summary of…
UBS Global Research expects the European Central Bank to keep its deposit rate at 2% at the April 30 meeting, noting recent commentary from ECB officials and evolving Middle East tensions have made policymakers more inclined to wait before moving. UBS still projects two 25 basis point increases in June and September, with a pause in July that would…
The recent ascent of major U.S. equity benchmarks to record levels has been concentrated in a small cluster of companies tied to artificial intelligence. While names such as Nvidia, Microsoft and Broadcom have pushed the S&P 500 to new highs, a large swath of the index has declined, leaving the headline advance dependent on a handful of outperforme…
Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike on the Apatit JSC fertilizer complex in Russia’s Vologda region, owned by PhosAgro PJSC, damaging a high-pressure sulfuric acid pipeline. The leak was contained, no hazardous chemicals escaped, and five workers were injured and hospitalized. The attack, the second on the site this month, intensifies supply-…
Prime Minister Keir Starmer has rejected demands to resign amid controversy over his appointment of Peter Mandelson as the proposed U.S. ambassador. Testimony from senior civil servants that contradicts Starmer's public statements has damaged his credibility, and the affair risks distracting the government from domestic and foreign policy prioritie…
