Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
6,527 total articles
San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said the U.S. economy's underlying fundamentals remain strong, citing continued consumer spending and business investment. She warned that uncertainty around the Iran conflict and elevated oil and gas prices could affect inflation and other sectors, and she did not signal a definitive shift in the F…
France will keep its planned public deficit target for 2026 unchanged despite a larger-than-expected narrowing of the shortfall in 2025. Budget Minister David Amiel told the senate finance committee that the 2025 improvement - to 5.1% of GDP from 5.8% - reflected one-off factors and that the macroeconomic consequences of the Iran conflict in 2026 w…
Minutes from the Federal Reserve's March meeting, released on Wednesday, indicate that officials continue to view interest rate reductions as possible if inflation falls in line with their forecasts. Policymakers stressed the need to remain agile in adjusting policy in response to incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
Chris Phelan, currently an adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, is reported to be the principal candidate to become President Donald Trump’s next chief economist. If formally nominated and later confirmed by the Senate, he would assume the chairmanship of the Council of Economic Advisers, replacing Stephen Miran. Since Miran stepped …
The White House says President Donald Trump wants the Strait of Hormuz reopened to tankers and other vessels without limitations, including tolls. Spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt reported a rise in traffic on Wednesday and declined to specify who controls the waterway. Tehran has proposed fees for passage amid ceasefire talks, and Mr. Trump suggested …
Minutes from the Federal Reserve's March 17-18 meeting indicate a growing contingent of policymakers viewed interest rate increases as a potential response to inflation running above the 2% target, a stance reinforced by the inflationary effects of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. At the same time, many participants continued to include rate reducti…
San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly told a Utah business audience that the U.S. economy remains fundamentally sound even as the conflict in Iran injects uncertainty and market volatility. Daly pointed to continued consumer spending and business investment, acknowledged potential inflation and labor-market concerns, and stressed the Fe…
U.S. officials pursued a temporary truce with Iran via back-channel negotiations run through Pakistan even as the president amplified public threats toward Tehran. Pakistan's military leadership presented a ceasefire proposal to Iran that ultimately produced a two-week pause and reopened the Strait of Hormuz, according to people familiar with the d…
Kenya's central bank left its policy rate at 8.75%, halting an easing trend that spanned almost two years while it evaluates the economic consequences of the US-Israeli war on Iran. Officials cited higher energy costs and strained global supply chains as reasons for standing pat. Inflation remains below the midpoint of the bank's target range, but …
Foreign investors pulled $70.3 billion from emerging market assets in March, the largest monthly outflow since the pandemic rout in March 2020, driven principally by a wide equity selloff in Asia and reduced demand for EM debt, according to Institute of International Finance data. The outflows marked a sharp reversal from large inflows earlier in t…
Brazil's central bank has completed a calibrated reduction of the benchmark Selic rate but will retain a restrictive monetary policy stance, Monetary Policy Director Nilton David said. The bank lowered the Selic by 25 basis points to 14.75% at its March 17-18 meeting and officials cite signs of growth above potential and labor market strength as re…
The World Bank projects South Asia's growth will ease to 6.3% in 2026 from 7.0% in 2025, driven by fallout from the Middle East conflict and disruptions in global energy markets. Growth is expected to rebound to 6.9% in 2027, with India remaining the primary growth engine. The bank flagged high uncertainty, energy-related inflationary pressures, po…
New International Monetary Fund research finds that active conflicts inflict substantial and persistent economic losses on countries where fighting occurs, with output declining roughly 7% over five years on average and economic scars lasting more than a decade. The IMF also documents a global surge in military spending, frequent defense build-ups …
Market participants are assembling a fresh playbook for what is being called the new 'Trump trade' after a U.S.-Iran ceasefire announcement and the shock moves that followed. The ceasefire pushed oil sharply lower on the immediate reaction but futures and analysts suggest a higher-for-longer oil environment while currency and government bond market…
Qatar has begun assembling engineers and personnel to restart operations at the Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facility following a recent ceasefire in the Middle East. Limited maintenance activity is underway ahead of a planned recommencement of production; however, the pace of any ramp-up is uncertain and full restoration depends o…
The United States and Iran agreed to a conditional ceasefire late Tuesday, with President Trump pausing planned attacks on Iranian infrastructure for two weeks provided Iran immediately reopens the Strait of Hormuz. The announcement came just under two hours before the president's self-imposed deadline, reversing an earlier, harsher threat, and pro…
Deloitte projects global revenues from women’s elite sports will reach at least $3 billion in 2026, a 25% increase versus last year. Growth has accelerated sharply since 2022, led primarily by basketball and football, with broadcast and matchday revenues accounting for substantial shares of the total.
The average contract rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate U.S. mortgage slipped to 6.51% for the week ending April 3, down 6 basis points from the prior week, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported. Despite the decline, refinance activity fell and purchase applications remain below year-ago levels, while policymakers prepare a major housing announcemen…
Investors sharply boosted expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate reduction by year-end after the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week cease-fire. CME Group market-implied probabilities moved markedly higher, while oil, gold and bond markets adjusted to a lower near-term risk of an inflation surge tied to Middle East hostilities. Un…
Ray Dalio said he anticipates constructive engagement when U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet next month, highlighting trade and capital flows as central topics. Dalio urged investors to take encouragement from the prospect of improved dialogue and stressed the broader importance of U.S.-China relations and maritime s…
A temporary ceasefire has eased oil prices and lifted stocks and bonds, but market participants and central bankers warn that the war-driven energy shock has exposed persistent inflationary pressure. With geopolitics now a central risk and policymakers signaling vigilance, pre-war expectations for rate cuts in major economies appear to have been ab…
France unveiled a revised military planning law that allocates 36 billion euros ($39 billion) in extra defense spending through 2030. The framework raises defense spending to 2.5% of GDP by decade-end, increases the number of nuclear warheads while keeping nuclear spending at about 13% of the defense budget, and directs fresh funding to replenish a…
An oil refinery on Iran's Lavan Island was struck by an attack at 10 a.m. local time on Wednesday, occurring only hours after a ceasefire in the conflict was announced. State television reported that firefighters worked to control a blaze at the facility and that no casualties had been reported. Iranian authorities have not identified who carried o…
The Federal Reserve enters the release of its March meeting minutes with policymakers already having acknowledged that the U.S.-Iran war would lift inflation this year. The two-day session, held March 17-18, occurred as oil jumped from about $70 to $100 a barrel and Fed officials revised up 2026 inflation projections. The minutes, due at 2 p.m. EDT…
Major U.S. banks are forecast to report higher quarterly earnings driven by stronger net interest income and elevated investment banking fees, according to analyst estimates. Earnings season begins with Goldman Sachs, followed by reports from JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley. Despite solid dealmaking and tr…
