Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
6,527 total articles
A Reuters poll of economists finds the Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to keep its policy rate at 2.25% at next week’s decision and through the remainder of the year. While markets price in a potential hike in the fourth quarter, economists say any future move would hinge on whether higher energy prices produce persistent inflation. A soft economy…
The central bank lowered its policy rate by 50 basis points to 14.5%. Governor Elvira Nabiullina said the committee weighed keeping the rate unchanged versus the cut, noted core inflation remains at 4-5% and at the upper end of forecasts, and warned that prospective changes to budget parameters could reduce scope for future monetary easing. She als…
The chair of Europe’s securities regulator said cyberattack risks are intensifying and that the arrival of rapidly advancing AI models could increase the speed with which such attacks unfold. Regulators are contacting supervised financial firms to assess defences, are building expertise to oversee critical third-party providers, and are monitoring …
In the run-up to the European Central Bank's April 30 policy meeting, senior ECB officials emphasized a cautious, data-driven approach amid rising energy prices. While markets largely expect no change to interest rates at this meeting, policymakers signaled that further rate hikes remain a possibility if energy-driven inflation proves persistent or…
UBS downgraded its recommendation on Eurozone equities to Neutral in March, pointing to the region's exposure to a sustained energy shock and lowering its 2026 earnings growth forecast. The bank retained a pro-cyclical bias within the Neutral stance, upgraded select pockets such as Swiss equities and European health care to Attractive, and set dive…
A sharp advance in U.S. equities is set to be tested by a heavy calendar of corporate earnings dominated by large technology firms and a Federal Reserve policy meeting that could coincide with a leadership change. Strong profit expectations and early reporting beats have supported the rally, but geopolitical developments and uncertainty over the Fe…
Kevin Warsh, nominated to lead the Federal Reserve, urged a major overhaul of how policymakers measure inflation. Recent February readings underscore the challenge: the Fed's headline metric showed inflation well above the 2% goal, while alternative approaches - including a trimmed mean favored by Warsh - yielded readings closer to target, and othe…
Weekly net purchases of global equity funds rose to $48.72 billion in the week through April 22, marking the largest weekly inflow since November 13, 2024. Momentum was supported by enthusiastic demand for artificial intelligence-related names and solid first-quarter results from several major U.S. banks. Flows were concentrated in U.S. and Europea…
Next week brings a convergence of three issues dominating investor focus: the Iran conflict and its impact on the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices, a run of central bank meetings that will test policymakers' tolerance for higher energy-driven inflation, and quarterly reports from five of the largest U.S. technology companies that underpin AI-driven …
China's central government increased fiscal expenditure by 2.6% in the first quarter versus a year earlier, up from a 1% rise in 2025, as authorities move to shore up growth. First-quarter outlays hit 7.47 trillion yuan while fiscal revenue rose 2.4% to 6.16 trillion yuan. The quarter's spending represented 24.9% of the annual budgeted total - the …
China's Commerce Minister Wang Wentao held separate meetings with Mercedes-Benz Group chairman Ola Källenius and Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury on Friday, asking both executives to encourage the European Union to revisit trade restrictions he described as protectionist and damaging to China-EU economic relations. Wang also urged Airbus to advance broad…
Jan Egeland, head of the Norwegian Refugee Council, has called on Norway to direct some income from its $2.2 trillion sovereign wealth fund toward civilians harmed by the Iran war, drawing a parallel to Norway’s long-term support package for Ukraine. Egeland pointed to elevated oil prices and argued for targeted aid to Lebanon, Iran and other indir…
U.S. equity futures were mixed as investors digested persistent oil supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, tentative ceasefire announcements involving Israel and Lebanon, and strong chip-sector results. Brent crude held above $100 a barrel, reinforcing inflation and growth concerns. In corporate headlines, Intel surged in after-hours trading a…
Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel told the SNB’s annual meeting that the Middle East conflict has injected significant uncertainty into the global economy and will likely slow growth and push inflation higher in Switzerland in the near term. He reiterated the bank's readiness to use interest-rate policy and foreign exchange interventions…
A delegation from Minneapolis asked the Swiss National Bank at its shareholders' meeting in Bern to sell a $1.1 billion holding in Palantir Technologies, citing the data firm's work with U.S. immigration enforcement and concerns raised after two fatal shootings in Minneapolis. The SNB maintains it reviews holdings and invests reserves to mirror glo…
Japan will establish a dedicated task force to confront cybersecurity threats to its financial system, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said, citing concerns linked to a preview of Anthropic’s Mythos AI model that reportedly found thousands of major vulnerabilities across major operating systems and web browsers. The move was approved at a meeting…
An internal Pentagon email presents a menu of policy options for the United States to penalize NATO partners it views as unsupportive of operations related to the Iran conflict. Proposals range from barring certain nations from senior NATO posts to reassessing U.S. stances on territorial claims, set against continued friction over basing, overfligh…
Global markets opened under pressure after Iranian forces publicly seized control of a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. signalled a more forceful naval posture. With the conflict between the U.S. and Iran in stalemate after roughly eight weeks, investors swung between hopes for a ceasefire and fears of prolonged disruption. Oil h…
Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel cautioned that the trajectory of Switzerland's inflation and growth depends on how long energy-price pressures tied to the conflict persist. He said a brief disruption would likely have only temporary effects that central banks can look through, but a sustained rise in energy costs could trigger broader …
The European Central Bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 2% at its next meeting, after a ceasefire in the Iran conflict reduced the immediate pressure from a spike in oil prices. While policymakers can for now delay tightening, uncertainty about when energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz might normalise means markets sti…
The outbreak of war in the Middle East has fractured many of the long-standing correlations investors use to interpret economic direction. Stocks have hit record highs even as geopolitical risks, potential energy supply interruptions and the prospect of lasting economic damage persist. Classic relationships - such as the hedge that sovereign bonds …
Fitch Ratings has signalled that Indonesia could temporarily exceed its legal fiscal deficit cap of 3% of GDP in response to disruptions from the war in the Middle East without provoking an instant credit downgrade, provided authorities present a convincing plan to tighten policy afterward. The ratings agency trimmed Indonesia's outlook to negative…
The U.S. dollar is poised for its first weekly advance in three weeks as stalled talks between the United States and Iran and uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz underpin safe-haven flows. Persistent crude strength, cautious central bank postures in Tokyo and Frankfurt, and verbal intervention warnings from Japanese authorities are shaping curren…
Japan's core consumer inflation - excluding fresh food - rose 1.8% in March year-on-year, staying below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for a second month. A measure that also strips out fuel increased 2.4% in March. Government fuel subsidies helped offset upward price pressures stemming from the Iran war-related energy shock, while analysts warn inf…
Oil climbed for a fourth consecutive session while U.S. equities slipped, led by technology shares. Weakening prospects for a U.S.-Iran peace agreement dented market optimism, offsetting a generally resilient equity backdrop. Private credit strains and a record-sized IPO pipeline added to investor focus on risk allocation.
