U.S. markets reopen after the long Fourth of July weekend with a set of economic and corporate releases that could influence trading. Investors will be watching a services-sector gauge on Monday, waiting for the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes later in the week and anticipating a possible list of outside experts who may join new Chair Kevin Warsh's task forces that will review the Fed's operations. Quarterly reports from Levi Strauss and Delta Air Lines are also scheduled in what promises to be a data-rich stretch.
1. U.S. services sector PMI
A key reading on U.S. economic activity arrives first: the Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index for June. The indicator, which measures activity in the services sector, is expected to register 54.2, a slight decline from May's 54.5. Readings above 50 indicate expansion.
The services sector accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic growth, underlining why this monthly PMI is closely followed by market participants. Last week, a separate ISM gauge for manufacturing showed an unexpected cooling after May's uptick, as firms weighed geopolitical developments tied to the Iran war and continued momentum in artificial intelligence-related activity.
2. FOMC meeting minutes
Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's June policy meeting will be published later in the week. That session, the first under Chair Kevin Warsh, produced a decision to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%.
Despite the hold, the Fed's official projections showed that several policymakers expect additional rate increases this year to address inflationary pressures tied to energy. At his post-decision press conference, Warsh signaled his intention to rethink certain long-standing Fed practices, including how the central bank provides forward guidance on rates, and he has reiterated a preference not to offer clues about the future path of interest rates.
Markets took particular note of Warsh's observation that inflation risks had diminished. That comment, together with softer-than-expected payrolls and weaker manufacturing readings last week, reduced near-term expectations that the Fed would raise rates imminently.
3. Possible unveiling of Fed task force appointees
Attention is also on when Warsh will announce the outside experts who will serve on several new task forces charged with reviewing how the Fed operates. Speaking at a central banking event in Portugal, he indicated that he would likely reveal the names this week.
Warsh said that the search prioritized top minds, including individuals who have occupied similar roles in the past and academics, and that the pool could include people from outside the United States. He described the intent to assemble those considered the best available.
According to what Warsh has described publicly, five task forces will focus on the Fed's communication practices, its balance sheet, economic data analysis, productivity and jobs, and the framework for price stability and inflation.
4. Levi Strauss results
On the corporate front, Levi Strauss & Co is due to report quarterly results this week. The company boosted its annual sales and profit guidance in April, citing continued strong consumer demand as a mitigating factor against the impact of broad U.S. tariffs.
Levi's has also faced uncertainty tied to the duties and a recent Supreme Court decision that could affect whether the U.S. would need to provide refunds to companies. The apparel maker has been working to diversify sourcing away from China, and has implemented price increases and cost controls in response to the economic fallout from the Iran war.
Shares in Levi's have risen by more than 17% year-to-date.
5. Delta Air Lines reports
Delta Air Lines is scheduled to report before the opening bell on Friday. The carrier had previously removed all planned capacity growth for the June quarter. In April, Delta did not provide an updated full-year financial outlook; CEO Ed Bastian said updating guidance would be "imprudent" amid a surge in jet fuel prices caused by the Iran war.
Higher jet fuel costs have left airlines sensitive to the effects of geopolitical developments in the Middle East. Still, oil prices have retreated back to pre-war levels after an interim peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran last month, a development that may prompt investors to seek management commentary on Delta's expectations for the remainder of 2026.
Shares of Delta have climbed by over 34% year-to-date.
Market implications and what to monitor
Across the items on the calendar, the services PMI and the Fed's meeting minutes are likely to carry broad macro significance, while earnings from Levi's and Delta will be particularly relevant to consumer discretionary and airline sectors respectively. The release of names for Warsh's task forces could influence market perceptions about the future conduct of monetary policy, including communication and balance sheet strategy.
Traders and analysts will be parsing the tone of the minutes for any changes in the Fed's internal debate about additional rate moves this year, and will look for management commentary from corporate issuers that have flagged exposure to tariffs, sourcing changes and elevated fuel costs.
Note: this report summarizes scheduled releases and company results and does not contain forward-looking forecasts beyond the information released by policymakers and corporate management.