U.S. stock-index futures showed modest gains on Monday as markets reopened after the U.S. Independence Day holiday, with traders bracing for a week of influential macroeconomic data and central bank commentary. Attention centers on a measure of services-sector activity that underpins a large portion of U.S. economic output, while commodity markets adjusted to fresh supply signals from a key alliance of oil producers.
Futures hover near flat amid data focus
By 03:01 ET (07:01 GMT), futures tied to the main U.S. averages were generally higher. The Dow futures contract was broadly unchanged, S&P 500 futures were up roughly 25 points, or 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had climbed about 276 points, or 0.9%. The cash market had been shuttered on Friday in observance of the Independence Day holiday, leaving these early contracts to set the tone for the week.
Market participants are likely to turn to the economic calendar for direction after recent data altered rate expectations. A softer-than-expected June payrolls print last week reduced the perceived immediacy of further Federal Reserve policy tightening. In the days ahead, remarks from Fed officials may shed more light on how policymakers interpret labor and inflation signals and the likely path for interest rates through the remainder of the year.
ISM non-manufacturing PMI in focus
On Monday, investors and strategists will watch the Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index for June. Consensus estimates point to a reading of 54.2, a slight dip from May's 54.5. A print above 50 denotes expansion.
The services sector accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, making the ISM non-manufacturing index a crucial barometer of broader growth dynamics. The sector's performance will be evaluated alongside recent developments in manufacturing, where an ISM measure of activity slowed last week after a strong upward move in May. That pullback in factory activity came as businesses digested geopolitical uncertainties tied to the Iran conflict and the ongoing technological boost from artificial intelligence-related demand.
OPEC+ moves to increase crude supplies
Oil markets reacted to a decision by a group of crude-producing countries to raise production targets beginning in August. By 03:26 ET, Brent crude futures declined about 0.4% to $71.86 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were down approximately 0.2% at $68.63 a barrel. WTI did not produce a settlement on Friday due to U.S. market holiday closures.
On Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, said they would lift their combined production targets by 188,000 barrels per day starting in August. That adjustment would follow similar increases implemented in June and July. Alongside reports of improving flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the decision adds to signs of expanding global crude availability.
Spot gold retreats as dollar strengthens
Spot gold traded lower on Monday as the U.S. dollar regained some of the ground it lost recently, reducing bullion's appeal for holders of other currencies. The metal had rallied last week after U.S. nonfarm payrolls came in weaker than expected, a development that trimmed expectations for Fed rate hikes in 2026. However, as the dollar rose from near two-week lows, gold gave back some of that advance.
Investors monitor both inflation readings and labor-market data as the Federal Reserve's primary inputs for interest-rate decisions. Persistent inflation or a resilient labor market would increase the likelihood of higher interest rates, which tends to weigh on non-yielding assets such as gold because it raises the opportunity cost of holding them relative to interest-bearing government debt.
Foxconn posts strong Q2 revenue driven by AI demand
Hon Hai Precision Industry, commonly known as Foxconn, reported a sizable year-on-year jump in second-quarter revenue, citing robust demand tied to artificial intelligence applications. The company said revenue for April through June rose 39.8% from the prior-year period to T$2.513 trillion, equivalent to $78.71 billion, beating market estimates of T$2.372 trillion.
Foxconn attributed the top-line lift to heavy orders for cloud and networking equipment driven by accelerating AI development, while its consumer electronics business also recorded solid gains. The company nevertheless flagged geopolitical volatility as a potential headwind.
What to watch this week
Markets will parse the ISM non-manufacturing PMI in the context of last week's payrolls report and recent manufacturing weakness. Fed commentary will be scrutinized for clues on whether officials see room to adjust policy settings this year. Commodity markets may remain responsive to supply cues from major producers and geopolitical developments affecting key shipping corridors.
In sum, the opening trading tone is cautious but constructive, with investors awaiting fresh data and commentary that will clarify growth and rate trajectories for the months ahead.