Global and U.S. markets absorbed a wave of data and corporate reports on Tuesday that skewed mostly positive for both equities and fixed income, but left several areas of risk still on investors' radars.
The headline surprise was the U.S. consumer price report for June. A pronounced retreat in energy costs helped push overall inflation lower, and crucially the monthly core consumer price index - which strips out volatile food and energy components - recorded its first monthly decline in more than six years, slipping by 0.02% for the month. That small fall reduced the annual rate of core inflation to 2.6%.
Markets responded swiftly. Futures contracts all but erased the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike later this month, and benchmark Treasury yields moved lower. While Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh offered limited new detail during congressional testimony earlier in the week, he reiterated the central bank's commitment to return inflation to its 2% objective.
Corporate earnings set a mixed tone
The corporate reporting season kicked off in earnest with big banks broadly outperforming expectations. A combination of volatile trading activity and hefty fees connected to a wave of initial public offerings underpinned strong results for the sector. Goldman Sachs stood out, with its share price surging around 9% on the day.
Technology names presented a divergent picture. IBM endured its largest single-day percentage fall on record, plunging roughly 25% after reporting results that missed expectations and acknowledging missteps in shifting its business model from traditional software services toward AI-driven data centre buildouts. Management also said that customer spending on AI was squeezing budgets for existing software purchases, a dynamic that pressured a swath of software service stocks that moved in IBM's slipstream.
On the other end of the semiconductor ecosystem, European equipment maker ASML posted exceptionally strong results and raised its annual revenue forecasts, echoing earlier positive sales commentary from TSMC earlier in the week. Those updates underscore continued demand in the chip sector and helped buoy related equities.
Oil and geopolitics
Energy markets added an additional layer of complexity. World crude prices climbed back above $85 a barrel as tensions between the United States and Iran persisted. In a notable policy reversal, President Trump dropped plans for a 20% toll on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, yet a resumption of the blockade on Iranian ships went into effect today. The geopolitical friction pushed oil prices higher and was a material factor in the decline of headline U.S. inflation for June.
China data and regional markets
China's economy expanded 4.3% in the second quarter, a slowdown that came in below market forecasts. Still, monthly indicators for June - including industrial output and retail sales - surprised to the upside, giving some support to regional risk sentiment. The yuan firmed in response, and Asian stock markets traded broadly higher. U.S. equity futures were also firmer ahead of the Wednesday open.
Details behind the CPI move
The monthly core CPI decline was influenced by an unexpectedly large drop in auto insurance prices, alongside smaller decreases in communication services, healthcare and hotel room rates. The -0.02% print was effectively rounded to zero in some reporting, but even that tiny fall marks the first monthly core decline in over six years.
While the report diminished near-term market bets on a Fed rate rise this month, it did not eliminate the possibility of higher rates later in the year; futures markets still price a chance of hikes down the line. Moreover, broad-based annual price gains across many categories remain well above the Fed's 2% target - a target the Fed chair affirmed the central bank is determined to reach.
Events to watch
- U.S. June Producer Price Index - 8:30 a.m. EDT
- New York Fed manufacturing survey for July - 8:30 a.m. EDT
- Federal Reserve Beige Book release - 2:00 p.m. EDT
- Speeches from Fed's Lisa Cook, New York Fed President John Williams and St. Louis Fed representative Alberto Musalem
- U.S. corporate earnings: BlackRock, BNY Mellon, Morgan Stanley and Johnson & Johnson
Chart note - The key graphic of the day highlighted how the retreat in energy prices contributed to slower overall consumer inflation in June and the marginal monthly decline in core CPI, the first such drop in over six years.
Markets processed a wide array of signals - lower inflation for now, mixed corporate earnings with outsized moves in both directions, and rising oil due to geopolitical developments - leaving investors to weigh whether the recent disinflation trend will persist or reverse in the months ahead.