Renewed attacks on tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz have undone an earlier rebound in Persian Gulf crude exports, tightening the physical oil market and lifting Brent prices back into the mid-$80s, according to strategists at Goldman Sachs.
Goldman noted that Gulf exports had recovered to more than 80% of their pre-war levels in the two weeks following a memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran. That recovery, however, was short-lived: following the renewed tanker attacks in the strait, exports fell again to below 50% of pre-war levels, amounting to roughly 11 million barrels per day.
The bank's strategists, led by Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby, estimate the market is now short 13.4 million barrels per day of Persian Gulf flows compared with the pre-war baseline. They cautioned that absent near-term de-escalation, such a loss "would likely require greater demand destruction and renewed inventory draws."
Goldman also warned that published flow data may understate the severity of the disruption. Some tankers are known to transit the strait with transponders switched off and only signal again once they are clear, which can mask true volumes. The bank has already revised mid-June Gulf export estimates upward by 1.1 million barrels per day, or 10%, from a month earlier as a result of these adjustments.
Strategists flagged geopolitical escalation as the principal threat to a sustained recovery in Gulf flows, singling out the prospect of further attacks on tankers and energy infrastructure. Drawing on the April U.S. blockade as a precedent, the bank estimated that a newly reinstated blockade of Iranian ports and coastal areas could cut Iranian exports by 1.5-2 million barrels per day.
Production dynamics across the region also play a role in how quickly flows can normalize. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which possess the largest tanker capacity and the highest-quality fields in the Gulf, accounted for most of the early-June rebound in outbound volumes. At the same time, Goldman said other crude production losses relative to February levels may still total around 9 million barrels per day.
On the demand side, Goldman observed that China's crude imports "may have bottomed" after a year-over-year drop of 5 million barrels per day in June, even as imports elsewhere in Asia returned to seasonal norms. The strategists do not see an immediate need for a surge in Chinese purchases because of elevated national stockpiles of 1.9 billion barrels, equivalent to 117 days of demand. Still, they expect imports from China to rise if Middle Eastern producers continue to cut official selling prices for July and August.
Looking to prices, Goldman maintained its long-run Brent forecasts of $80 per barrel for the fourth quarter of 2026 and $75 for 2027, but emphasized that risks in the near term are skewed to the upside. The bank said Brent could climb above $110 per barrel in the fourth quarter if the Gulf export recovery remains stalled. Conversely, prices could decline into the $60s by year-end if production exceeds expectations and demand recovers more slowly than currently assumed.
Context for markets and logistics
The developments underline the sensitivity of global oil balances to disruptions in a narrow maritime chokepoint and the ways in which tanker movements and reporting practices can obscure real-time flows. For shipping, refining and energy market participants, the combination of physical flow shortfalls, inventory dynamics and price uncertainty increases operational and commercial risk in the near term.
Goldman’s analysis ties observed shipping behavior, production capacity shifts and Chinese inventory levels together to quantify how much market tightening is currently being driven by the Strait of Hormuz disruptions. The firm’s scenario-based guidance points to a wide potential range for Brent depending on how flows and demand evolve over the coming months.