UBS Analysis Finds European Insurers Tend to Trade More Quietly in Q1

Report shows narrower share-price dispersion on first-quarter results days, with pockets of volatility among Nordics and select names

By Derek Hwang SCOR PRU

UBS Analysis Finds European Insurers Tend to Trade More Quietly in Q1

SCOR PRU

A UBS Global Research review of the past four years finds European insurance stocks have recorded lower dispersion in share-price moves on Q1 results days than in other reporting periods. The report cites an average standard deviation of 2.6% for Q1 results days versus a 3.9% average across all reporting periods, while the second quarter typically shows the widest swings. Multi-line insurers have generally been the calmest subgroup, and Nordic insurers the most volatile. Individual names such as SCOR, Gjensidige Forsikring and Prudential have shown elevated Q1-day volatility.

Key Points

UBS finds average share-price dispersion on Q1 results days was 2.6%, versus a 3.9% average across all reporting periods over the past four years - impacts equity market participants and insurance-sector investors.
Multi-line insurers have exhibited the least dispersion, while Nordic insurers have shown the highest volatility - relevant for portfolio allocation within financials.
SCOR SE, Gjensidige Forsikring ASA and Prudential PLC recorded the largest individual-stock Q1 volatility during the examined period - relevant for stock-specific trading and risk management.

Background and headline findings

UBS Global Research examined share-price dispersion among European insurance companies around quarterly earnings announcements and found a consistent pattern over the last four years: the first-quarter reporting window has tended to generate lower price dispersion than other reporting periods. The brokerage's analysis shows an average standard deviation of 2.6% for the sector on Q1 results days, compared with a 3.9% average dispersion across all reporting periods.

How the quarters compare

The UBS report highlights a contrast between Q1 and the rest of the calendar. While Q1 has historically been a relatively muted period for intra-sector dispersion on results days, UBS identifies the second quarter as the period that typically produces the greatest divergence in share-price movements.

Sector and regional patterns

Within the broader insurance sector, UBS's data points to differentiated behaviors across business models and geographies. Multi-line insurers have generally shown the tightest share-price dispersion both in the first quarter and over the full year. By contrast, Nordic insurers have been the most prone to wider swings in share prices on results days.

Company-level volatility

At the individual-stock level, UBS names SCOR SE, Gjensidige Forsikring ASA and Prudential PLC as having delivered the largest share-price volatility on Q1 results days over the past four-year span. The report notes that Prudential's pattern is influenced by a smaller sample size, with two sizable positive and negative outcomes among the last four cycles contributing to its elevated dispersion.

Implications for the coming reporting season

As market participants prepare for the upcoming 1Q26 results, UBS suggests historical dispersion patterns alongside current crowding data can help investors identify where the greatest potential for volatility may lie in the weeks ahead. The firm frames Q1 history as a lens for assessing likely hotspots, while also flagging specific subgroups and individual names that have been more variable.

Note - The data and conclusions reported here reflect UBS Global Research's analysis over the last four years as described above.

Risks

Historical patterns may not predict future outcomes; the UBS analysis covers the last four years only - this affects investors in insurance equities and broader financial markets.
Individual stock volatility can be driven by small sample effects, as noted for Prudential where two extreme results influenced dispersion - poses risks for concentrated positions in single insurers.
Regional differences mean that exposure to Nordic insurers could carry higher short-term share-price swings around results days - relevant for regionally focused portfolios in the insurance sector.

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UBS Analysis Finds European Insurers Tend to Trade More Quietly in Q1

Key Points

Risks

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