Goldman Sachs on Tuesday raised its recommendation on Allianz SE to buy from neutral and lifted its 12-month price target to €450 from €410. The new target implies about 15.6% upside relative to Allianz's April 20 closing price of €389.30 and prompted upward movement in the stock.
In revising its valuation, Goldman increased the applied price-to-adjusted tangible book value multiple for its 2027 estimate to 1.8x from 1.6x. The brokerage also implemented an approximately 2% uplift to its 2027 earnings per share estimates, reflecting its revised outlook for the company.
Goldman analysts pointed to what they described as increased confidence in Allianz's ability to deliver results even in the face of a volatile macro environment and a shifting technology landscape. That view follows the insurer's reported 2025 performance.
Allianz recorded core operating earnings per share growth of 12.5% in 2025. Adjusting for a tax provision tied to the sale of its Indian joint venture stake and for a disposal gain on its UniCredit joint venture, the adjusted core EPS growth was 10.8%.
The insurer also reported a core return on equity of 18.1% in 2025 and sent €8.6 billion in net cash remittances to shareholders that year. Those outcomes came in the first year of Allianz's 2025-2027 financial plan, which targets a three-year EPS compound annual growth rate of 7% to 9%, Solvency II operating capital generation of 24 to 25 percentage points and cumulative remittances in excess of €27 billion.
Goldman’s own forecast for Allianz's 2025-2027 EPS compound annual growth rate is 10.2%, which sits above the company's stated target range.
Within the group, the property and casualty division - responsible for roughly half of group operating profit - posted €8.99 billion in operating profit for 2025. Goldman noted that this represents growth at approximately a 10% compound annual rate since 2022. The combined ratio for the division improved by about 120 basis points to 92.2% in 2025. Goldman’s 2026-2028 property and casualty operating profit estimates sit about 1% to 3% above Visible Alpha consensus data.
On asset-side exposures, Goldman estimated Allianz’s private and structured credit holdings at roughly 22% of the total investment portfolio. The brokerage modelled a stress scenario mirroring the 2001/2002 default cycle - described in the note as the most severe in 40 years - and found that pre-recovery losses for Allianz Life would amount to about 0.7% of market capitalisation, declining to roughly 0.4% after recoveries.
Goldman also highlighted structural differences between Allianz and U.S. alternative asset manager platforms, including lower exposure to structured products and a predominantly onshore operating model.
Retail motor insurance is another material line item at Allianz. Goldman estimated retail motor contributes around 10% of group operating profit. In the bank's central scenario, full adoption of autonomous vehicles would make the UK motor claims pool approximately 31% smaller by 2050. Allianz's claims platform, solvd, is the group's leading EU claims platform and, according to company data cited by Goldman, served more than 45 markets globally and processed about 17 million claims and repair transactions in 2023.
On technology and distribution, Allianz carries an annual technology budget of roughly €6.5 billion, described as the largest across global insurance. The company has identified potential productivity gains from artificial intelligence in the range of 10% to 30% in areas including expense ratio and loss ratio improvement.
Goldman’s projected earnings per share for Allianz are €29.97 in 2026, €33.50 in 2027 and €37.21 in 2028. The insurer’s Solvency II ratio was 218% at the end of 2025, with a post-combined-stress ratio of 196% as reported in the firm's disclosures.
What this means
The upgrade reflects Goldman’s reassessment of Allianz’s execution risk, capital generation and potential efficiency gains from technology, and it is accompanied by higher near-term earnings estimates and a raised valuation multiple for 2027. Key operating metrics and remittances in 2025 provided the foundation for the more constructive stance.