Overview
Democratic political figures are taking early steps that could presage bids for the 2028 presidential nomination as the party prepares for an open contest to succeed the term-limited Republican incumbent. No one has formally declared for the November 2028 general election, and the nominating contest will come into clearer view after the 2026 midterm elections. Still, a number of governors, former national candidates, U.S. senators and progressive leaders have started activities - from travel in early-voting states to fundraising and publishing books - that are commonly associated with a presidential campaign.
Gubernatorial contenders drawing attention
Several sitting Democratic governors have moved into the spotlight through fundraising, national roles and travel to key early primary states. Their profiles reflect differing balances of statewide success, national name recognition and potential exposure to partisan attacks.
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Andy Beshear - The Kentucky governor was named chair of the Democratic Governors Association this year, a position that provides a national platform to highlight his record in a deeply Republican state. Beshear’s political action committee holds more than $1.2 million, and he has made visits to South Carolina, a state likely to figure early in the primary calendar. Asked recently whether he was comfortable being discussed as a potential 2028 candidate, he replied in an interview, "I’m comfortable in that." His principal strength is electoral success in a state President Trump carried by more than 30 percentage points in 2024. That same context is also a vulnerability: Beshear is not widely known beyond Kentucky, and his bipartisan approach may not align with some Democratic primary voters who want a more combative posture toward Trump and his policies.
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Gavin Newsom - California’s governor has broadened his national visibility in recent months, releasing a memoir in February and undertaking travel that included a stop in South Carolina. Federal Election Commission filings indicate his political action committee has more than $4 million. Newsom said on CBS News Sunday Morning last October that he intended to give serious thought to a 2028 run after the midterm elections. His strength lies in an established national profile and a record of strong criticism of Trump. At the same time, Newsom could be vulnerable to attacks focused on California’s challenges - including some of the highest gasoline prices, tax levels and a significant homelessness problem - topics Republicans would likely highlight in a general election contest.
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JB Pritzker - The Illinois governor has traveled to likely early primary states such as New Hampshire and Nevada and has not ruled out a presidential candidacy. In April he emphasized that his immediate focus remains on his 2026 gubernatorial reelection campaign, but he added, "I’m gonna be more involved than ever before in 2028 because we can’t lose." Pritzker has gained national attention through his criticisms of Trump’s deployment of National Guard troops and federal immigration agents to U.S. cities. As an heir to the Hyatt hotel family fortune, his billionaire status provides the capacity to self-fund to some degree, reducing reliance on outside donors. Conversely, his wealth could be used by rivals to portray him as disconnected from voters facing economic strain or overly dependent on personal resources.
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Josh Shapiro - Pennsylvania’s governor published a memoir this year and reportedly has about $36 million in cash on hand for his 2026 gubernatorial reelection effort. When asked in April about a possible presidential bid, Shapiro said Democrats would need to "have a conversation about the country’s direction after the midterm elections this November," adding, "And I’ll be a part of that conversation." Shapiro’s strengths include popularity in a critical presidential swing state that President Trump carried in 2024. Yet he faces vulnerabilities: as a Jewish Democrat perceived as pro-Israel, he could find himself at odds with rising criticism of Israel among some Democratic voters over the conflicts in Gaza and Iran, even though he opposes the U.S.- and Israeli-led war against Iran.
Other governors frequently mentioned as possible contenders include Maryland’s Wes Moore - who has stated he is not running - and Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer, who has publicly downplayed the prospect of a 2028 bid.
Former national contenders and cabinet figures
Several Democrats who have previously sought the presidency or served in high-profile national roles have already taken steps consistent with exploratory activity.
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Pete Buttigieg - The former 2020 presidential candidate later served as transportation secretary in the Biden administration. Buttigieg’s political action committee holds more than $5 million, and he has traveled to early nominating states including Iowa and New Hampshire. He is widely regarded as an effective debater and has not shied away from criticizing Republicans on conservative platforms, including appearances on Fox News. But his 2020 campaign underperformed with Black voters - a vital Democratic constituency - and his prior executive experience was limited to serving as mayor of South Bend, Indiana, before joining the cabinet.
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Kamala Harris - The former vice president has been among the most explicit in discussing another presidential run after the 2024 election loss, saying in April, "I might. I might. I am thinking about it." Harris brings high name recognition and, according to early 2028 surveys cited in public discussion, polls well among Democratic voters. Yet she would be embarking on a third presidential effort, and candidates who run multiple times after losing have often met skepticism in primary electorates. Her close association with former President Joe Biden could also be a political liability for some within the party who view his handling of the 2024 campaign - and his delayed exit from that race - as factors that harmed the party’s prospects.
Senators under consideration
A number of Democratic U.S. senators have been the subject of speculation about potential 2028 ambitions, though only one has drawn concentrated early attention due to campaign resources.
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Mark Kelly - The Arizona senator, a retired NASA astronaut and former U.S. Navy pilot, has amassed the largest publicly reported cash balance of any potential Democratic contender for 2028 - more than $22 million in his principal congressional committee, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Kelly has visited South Carolina and Iowa and has not ruled out a run. He carries electoral credibility in Arizona, a state that is considered competitive in presidential elections, and has particular standing on gun policy given his marriage to former U.S. Representative Gabby Giffords, who survived an assassination attempt in 2011. At the same time, Kelly’s moderate record may make it difficult for him to capture enthusiasm from more progressive primary voters.
Other senators often mentioned as possible candidates include Arizona’s Ruben Gallego, Connecticut’s Chris Murphy, Georgia’s Jon Ossoff and New Jersey’s Cory Booker.
Prominent progressives
The party’s progressive wing is also represented among the early speculation about 2028, with figures who have strong grassroots followings and ideological profiles distinct from the party establishment.
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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez - The New York congresswoman, who describes herself as a democratic socialist, is widely seen as a leading figure on the party’s left and a likely heir to the movement energized by Bernie Sanders’s presidential campaigns. When asked in a May interview about the possibility of running for president, she did not rule it out, declaring, "My ambition is to change this country." Ocasio-Cortez is popular among many Democratic voters and frequently draws enthusiastic crowds. Her policy positions - including support for higher taxes on the wealthy and expanded government-funded programs - are often highlighted by Republican critics as evidence of her place on the party’s left flank.
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Ro Khanna - The California representative is another progressive name in the conversation; he has said he will decide on a potential bid after the November midterm elections.
Other figures testing the waters
Former Chicago mayor and past Obama White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel has publicly weighed a presidential run. Emanuel’s résumé spans roles as a U.S. representative, White House chief of staff, mayor of Chicago and most recently ambassador to Japan. He said in June 2025 that he was considering a presidential campaign and has since argued in media appearances that the Democratic Party’s moderate wing needs renewal. Polling cited in public discourse places him at roughly 1% among likely Democratic primary voters.
Perspective on early polling and surprises
Political history suggests early polling and conventional wisdom can mislead. The early stages of prior nomination fights have produced candidates who later surged after registering minimal support in initial surveys. For example, at the start of their respective primary chapters, both Donald Trump in 2016 and Bill Clinton in 1992 registered about or below 1% in early polls before ultimately securing their party’s nominations and winning the presidency.
Where things stand and what to watch
At present, activity by governors, senators and prominent progressives signals a broad and unsettled Democratic field. Key indicators to watch in the coming months will include the outcomes of the 2026 midterm elections, adjustments in the national political climate that could shift Democratic voter priorities, further fundraising disclosures from potential candidates, and whether any figures move from exploratory actions to formal campaign launches. The party’s nomination process will begin to coalesce after the 2026 midterms, at which point primary voters and party infrastructure will more clearly identify leading contenders.
Implications for investors and markets
While this analysis refrains from forecasting electoral outcomes, the early maneuvering within the Democratic Party underscores political uncertainty that can influence investor sentiment. Shifts in likely nominees could affect expectations for fiscal policy, regulatory posture and geopolitical stances - all factors that market participants monitor closely as they price risk into different sectors and asset classes.