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Economy May 19, 2026 06:29 AM

Lula Pulls Ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro in New Poll After Leaked Audio Scandal

AtlasIntel survey for Bloomberg shows Lula leading 49% to 42% in a potential runoff amid revelations tying Bolsonaro to a banking fraud figure

By Caleb Monroe

A fresh AtlasIntel poll for Bloomberg News finds President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flavio Bolsonaro 49% to 42% in a hypothetical runoff. The survey is the first major public poll released after leaked audio messages linked Bolsonaro to Daniel Vorcaro, owner of Banco Master and a central figure in Brazil's largest banking fraud scandal. The findings show shifting public perceptions about responsibility for the alleged fraud and differing views on whether the audio represents evidence of wrongdoing or political damage.

Lula Pulls Ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro in New Poll After Leaked Audio Scandal

Key Points

  • AtlasIntel for Bloomberg News finds Lula leading Bolsonaro in a hypothetical runoff, 49% to 42%. Sectors potentially affected: political risk and financial markets.
  • The poll is the first major public survey after leaked audio linking Bolsonaro to Daniel Vorcaro, owner of Banco Master, a central figure in Brazil's largest banking fraud scandal. Sector impacted: banking/financial services.
  • Public perception has shifted: 43% of respondents see Bolsonaro's group as more implicated in the alleged fraud, while about 33% blame Lula's allies; among those aware of the audio, 55% view it as evidence meriting investigation.

A new vote-intention survey conducted by AtlasIntel for Bloomberg News shows President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ahead of Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a prospective runoff, with Lula at 49% and Bolsonaro at 42% - a seven percentage-point margin.

The poll is the first substantial public opinion study released after leaked audio messages surfaced that connect Bolsonaro - the oldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro - to Daniel Vorcaro, the owner of Banco Master who has been identified as a central figure in what is described as Brazil's largest banking fraud scandal. The audio revelations were published last week by Intercept Brasil.

Those recordings reportedly show Bolsonaro seeking millions of dollars from Vorcaro to finance a film about his father. Bolsonaro responded to the disclosures by denying any misconduct, saying he was pursuing "private sponsorship for a private film."

Polling published by AtlasIntel indicates a change from recent surveys in which Bolsonaro had been nearly level with Lula following Bolsonaro's December declaration that he would run against the leftist incumbent in the October election. The new results suggest a reversal of that near-parity in favor of Lula.

The survey also probed public reactions to the leaked audio. It found that 43% of respondents now believe Bolsonaro's group is more involved in the alleged fraud, while almost 33% attribute greater responsibility to allies of Lula. Among those who had heard about the leaked messages, 55% saw them as legitimate evidence warranting investigation into potential irregularities, and 33% regarded the leaks as an attempt to harm Bolsonaro politically.

Brazilians are scheduled to cast ballots on Oct. 4, with a presidential runoff expected later in October if no candidate wins an outright majority. The poll results underscore evolving voter attitudes in the weeks and months leading up to the election.

Contextual note: The survey results and public reactions are presented as reported by AtlasIntel for Bloomberg News and reflect respondents' stated views regarding the leaked audio and the alleged banking fraud.

Risks

  • Leaked audio may continue to alter voter sentiment and election dynamics, introducing uncertainty for political risk-sensitive markets - relevant to equity and bond markets.
  • Public division in interpreting the audio - with 33% seeing it as a political attack - could sustain polarized media narratives and uncertain impact on campaign fundraising or messaging, affecting advertising and media sectors.
  • Ongoing attention to a major banking fraud scandal involving Banco Master may increase scrutiny on the financial sector and related institutions, creating regulatory and reputational risks for banks.

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