Overview
A large majority of registered voters attribute responsibility to President Donald Trump for the recent surge in gasoline prices, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that concluded in the middle of April. The poll found that 77% of registered voters said Trump bears at least a fair share of the blame for the higher prices, which the survey links to his decision to pursue a military confrontation with Iran alongside Israel.
Poll findings and cross‑party sentiment
The view that the president is at fault spans partisan lines. The poll recorded 95% of Democrats, 82% of independents and 55% of Republican voters saying Trump is at least partly responsible for the increase in gasoline costs. The survey also reported that 58% of voters would be less inclined to support midterm candidates who endorse the president's approach to the conflict with Iran; that figure includes roughly one in five Republicans and about two-thirds of independents.
The poll sampled 4,557 U.S. adults nationwide, of whom 3,577 were registered voters, and had a margin of error of 2 percentage points. It was conducted April 15-20.
Conflict, oil markets and consumer prices
The United States and Israel launched surprise attacks on Iran in February that killed the country’s leader and thousands of Iranians, the poll summary said. Tehran retaliated by striking U.S. allies in the region, actions that damaged oil export facilities and halted about a fifth of global oil trade. Those disruptions correspond with U.S. gasoline prices rising to roughly $4 a gallon - about $1 higher than before the conflict began.
Those higher fuel costs are affecting household budgets and are becoming a political liability for Republicans as they campaign for control of Congress in the November midterms.
Political consequences and party standing on the economy
Party strategists acknowledge the political sensitivity of rising fuel prices. Sarah Chamberlain, president of the Republican Main Street Partnership, said: "Right now, it’s bad. People are upset." Chamberlain noted Republicans are concerned about holding the House and said if the Iran situation eases and gas prices fall by the summer, Republicans could improve their prospects.
The Reuters/Ipsos survey shows a substantial erosion in the Republican Party’s long‑running advantage on economic competence. When respondents were asked which party they preferred on the economy, 38% selected the Republican approach and 37% favored the Democrats - a slim one‑point edge for Republicans. That contrasts with a 14‑point Republican advantage recorded immediately after Trump began his second term in January 2025, according to the poll.
Public concern about prices and inflation
Gasoline prices are a top concern: 77% of Americans in the poll identified fuel costs as a very big concern. Respondents were also more than twice as likely to expect fuel prices to rise over the next year than to expect a decrease. Inflation remains a central worry: 82% of those surveyed described inflation as a big concern, and 70% disagreed with the characterization that the economy is "booming," a phrase the White House has used in public messaging and that appears on the administration's website as "WELCOME TO THE GOLDEN AGE!"
Trump, who won the 2024 presidential election after pledging to tackle inflation that troubled his Democratic predecessor, Joe Biden, has repeatedly described the U.S. economy as strong in public appearances, including remarks in Las Vegas on April 16.
Messaging and campaign implications
Republican strategists are grappling with how to reconcile the party’s messaging on affordability and tax cuts while responding to voter anger over rising costs. Erin Maguire, a Republican strategist, said that with prices climbing, Trump’s focus on affordability and reducing consumer costs is difficult to align with current economic conditions. Maguire advised caution in how candidates discuss the Iran conflict when highlighting the administration’s tax‑cut agenda.
Higher fuel costs and inflation expectations could shape voter choices in the midterms and are contributing to an uncertain political landscape for Republicans seeking to maintain their congressional majorities. The poll’s findings suggest that the war’s economic fallout - from disrupted oil exports to higher pump prices - is resonating with a broad swath of the electorate.
Summary
The Reuters/Ipsos poll indicates 77% of registered voters place at least partial responsibility on President Trump for rising gasoline prices tied to military actions against Iran. The sentiment crosses party lines and is eroding the Republican advantage on economic issues, while inflation and fuel costs remain top voter concerns heading into the November midterm elections.
Methodology note: The poll was conducted April 15-20, surveyed 4,557 U.S. adults (3,577 registered voters), and reported a margin of error of 2 percentage points.