The National Bank of Romania (NBR) announced today that it will hold its monetary policy rate at 6.50 percent per annum. Alongside that decision, the central bank kept its lending facility rate at 7.50 percent and its deposit facility rate at 5.50 percent. Minimum reserve requirement ratios for both leu- and foreign currency-denominated liabilities of credit institutions were also left at current levels.
Inflation readings published for May 2026 show continued upward pressure. The 12-month inflation rate rose to 10.85 percent in May 2026 from 9.87 percent in March 2026. The central bank cited increases in natural gas, fuel and administered prices, together with a rise in rents for state-owned housing, as contributors to the higher headline inflation. The annual adjusted CORE2 measure climbed to 8.5 percent in May 2026 from 8.2 percent in March 2026. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices inflation rate increased to 9.7 percent in May 2026 from 9.0 percent in March 2026.
On the output side, Romania’s economic activity contracted in the first quarter of 2026. Gross domestic activity decreased by 1.2 percent year on year in Q1 2026, following a 0.2 percent advance in the fourth quarter of 2025. The central bank noted that household consumption recorded a stronger annual decline over the first three months of 2026, while growth in gross fixed capital formation slowed. Looking forward, the NBR expects a slight recovery in economic activity in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the previous quarter.
Monetary and financial conditions show ongoing developments in credit dynamics. The annual pace of increase in credit to the private sector rose to 7.7 percent in May 2026 from 7.1 percent in March 2026. Meanwhile, the share of the domestic currency component in credit to the private sector narrowed to 66.9 percent in May 2026 from 67.8 percent in March 2026.
Regarding inflation expectations, the central bank signaled that the annual inflation rate is expected to shrink slightly in June before posting a substantial decline in the third quarter of 2026. The NBR Board has scheduled its next monetary policy meeting for August 10, 2026. The account of today’s discussions will be published on the central bank’s website on July 20, 2026 at 3:00 p.m.
Contextual summary
The central bank’s decision to pause adjustments to the policy rate leaves key interest settings stable amid rising inflation and divergent signals from economic activity and credit growth. Inflation measures show clear upward momentum through May 2026, while GDP data point to a contraction in the opening quarter of the year. Credit expansion has picked up, and the share of loans denominated in domestic currency has edged lower.