World August 31, 2026 10:17 AM

Nigeria Posts Strongest Quarterly Expansion in Five Years as Oil Revenues Surge

Elevated crude prices and higher output lift GDP to 4.43% in Q2, with gains across oil and non-oil sectors

By Jordan Park
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Nigeria's economy grew 4.43% in the second quarter, the fastest quarterly pace in five years, as higher oil prices and increased production bolstered output and foreign-currency liquidity, the National Bureau of Statistics reported. Growth exceeded the prior quarter's 3.89% and outpaced a median forecast of 4.2% from three economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Both the oil and non-oil segments accelerated, led by a jump in oil-sector activity and stronger performances in telecommunications and agriculture.

Nigeria Posts Strongest Quarterly Expansion in Five Years as Oil Revenues Surge
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Key Points

  • Nigeria's GDP grew 4.43% in Q2, the fastest quarterly expansion in five years, up from 3.89% in Q1.
  • Oil sector surged to 7.31% growth in Q2 from 2.57% in the prior quarter, aided by crude prices averaging $93 per barrel and higher daily output (1.72 million bpd versus 1.55 million bpd).
  • Non-oil activity improved to 4.31% from 3.94%, led mainly by telecommunications and agriculture; elevated oil revenues also supported foreign-currency liquidity.

The National Bureau of Statistics, in a report released from Abuja, said Nigeria's economy expanded at an annualized rate of 4.43% in the second quarter, marking the strongest quarterly growth seen in five years.

This pace surpassed the 3.89% recorded in the first quarter and was higher than the 4.2% median projection from three economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The report highlighted simultaneous acceleration in the country's oil and non-oil sectors compared with the prior three-month period.

In the oil segment, activity rose sharply to 7.31% in Q2, up from 2.57% in the preceding quarter. Crude prices averaged $93 per barrel during the quarter, compared with $73 per barrel in the previous three months. The report attributed higher prices in part to supply constraints tied to the US war with Iran, which affected shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

Output among producers in Africa's largest oil producer and refiner increased to an average of 1.72 million barrels per day over the quarter, up from 1.55 million barrels per day in the prior quarter. The NBS said higher prices combined with supply constraints helped drive the production increase.

The non-oil economy also gained momentum, expanding 4.31% in the quarter versus 3.94% previously. The NBS singled out telecommunications and agriculture as the main contributors to the non-oil uptick.

The report framed the second-quarter performance as being supported by stronger external earnings from crude and an accompanying improvement in foreign-currency liquidity, factors that together underpinned broader output growth across sectors.


Key details in the report are limited to the headline growth rates, sectoral breakdowns, average crude prices for the two quarters, and the change in daily oil output. The NBS release did not provide additional forecasts or projections beyond the reported quarter-on-quarter comparisons.

Risks

  • Geopolitical tensions noted in the report - the US war with Iran and supply constraints through the Strait of Hormuz - have contributed to higher crude prices, creating exposure to volatility in oil markets that could affect revenue flows and growth.
  • The economy's stronger performance is closely linked to elevated oil prices and increased production; a reversal in prices or output could weaken foreign-currency liquidity and growth momentum.
  • Information released focuses on quarter-on-quarter comparisons and does not include forward-looking forecasts, leaving near-term prospects dependent on external price and supply developments mentioned in the report.

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