A recent poll conducted by Quaest for brokerage Genial indicates that President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva continues to lead Senator Flavio Bolsonaro as Brazil approaches the October presidential election, though the margin separating the two has narrowed.
In a simulated head-to-head runoff between the two leading contenders, respondents gave Lula 44% support versus 39% for Bolsonaro. That compares with a July 15 Quaest survey that put Lula at 45% and Bolsonaro at 37% in a similar runoff scenario, showing a movement of voter preference toward the right-wing challenger over the intervening weeks.
The same poll presents a first-round picture in which Lula would receive 39% of votes and Bolsonaro would collect 30%. Other names on the first-round ballot captured smaller shares: Renan Santos at 4%, Ronaldo Caiado at 4% and Romeu Zema at 2%.
The poll also noted prior first-round results from the earlier survey in which Lula registered 40% and Bolsonaro 28%.
Senator Flavio Bolsonaro is identified as the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. The poll reiterates the electoral rule that if no candidate secures more than 50% of valid votes in the first round, the two leading candidates proceed to a second-round runoff.
Quaest carried out the survey with 2,004 respondents between July 31 and August 3. The poll reports a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
Key context and takeaways
- In a runoff simulation Lula leads 44% to 39% - a smaller margin than in mid-July.
- First-round projections put Lula at 39% and Bolsonaro at 30%, with several minor candidates holding single-digit shares.
- The survey sample consisted of 2,004 people surveyed from July 31 to August 3, with a stated margin of error of 2 percentage points.
Methodology note
The poll was commissioned by the brokerage Genial and executed by Quaest. Timing, sample size and margin of error are reported above. The survey presents both first-round and hypothetical runoff scenarios consistent with Brazil’s electoral rules governing a two-round presidential vote.
Risks and uncertainties
- Voter preferences appear to be shifting modestly between successive Quaest surveys - change between polls introduces uncertainty for both candidates.
- First-round results remain under 50% for the leading candidate, which means a runoff is possible and outcomes could change between rounds.
- Poll margin of error of 2 percentage points may affect the precision of reported percentages, particularly in close comparisons.