U.S. oil companies are preparing to report a surge in quarterly profits, a jump that could produce a public confrontation with the White House over gasoline prices. After months of consumer complaints about high costs at the pump, the sector’s largest names are anticipated to post second-quarter earnings far above first-quarter results, setting up renewed scrutiny from political officials focused on near-term affordability for drivers.
Exxon Mobil and Chevron are expected to register quarterly profits that are more than triple their first-quarter totals, according to analyst compilations cited by market watchers. Industry participants and observers point to a sharp tightening in fuel supplies and stronger refining margins as central to the gains. Oil prices spiked after the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran began in late February and global fuel availability tightened, supporting refinery margins that boosted returns across the sector.
The prospect of outsized profits comes at a sensitive moment for the industry’s relationship with the presidential administration. The White House has publicly pressed oil companies to help bring down gasoline prices ahead of the November midterm elections. Officials have also sought probes into pricing, asking the Justice Department to investigate possible gasoline price gouging, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned producers and refiners that administrative options could be considered if pump prices fail to fall sharply.
Industry executives acknowledge the political pressure. "The industry is definitely talking to each other and thinking of ways to deal with it, but we know what's coming. We understand the politics," said one executive, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Still, oil companies and lobbyists have been stepping up outreach to officials and lawmakers to explain why the price consumers see on the forecourt does not move in simple lockstep with crude. Crude accounts for nearly half of the retail gasoline price, they note, with the remainder determined by refining, distribution, marketing and taxes. Many in the industry point to tight physical markets and constrained gasoline inventories rather than crude alone as the main reason U.S. pump prices remain elevated despite benchmark crude returning to pre-war levels.
Industry and market voices highlight structural supply-demand frictions. "Gasoline prices don't move in lockstep with crude oil, especially during a major global disruption affecting supply, refining and inventories," said Bethany Williams, a spokesperson for the American Petroleum Institute. Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, made similar observations about the divergence between crude and retail fuel pricing.
Trade groups representing refiners also emphasize other inputs and policy costs that influence finished fuel prices. The American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers pointed to regulatory expenses, noting in particular that the Renewable Fuel Standard obliges retailers to sell a mandated share of fuel blended with ethanol or other biofuels, which affects retail pricing dynamics.
The White House has framed lowering gasoline prices as a top priority, citing lower oil prices since the Iran agreement and increased coordination with industry on permitting and regulatory matters. Exxon declined to comment on the matter. Chevron referred to a June 25 interview with CNBC in which CFO Eimear Bonner said that it would take time for gasoline prices to normalize.
Bumper profits expected
Analysts say the second quarter will likely produce the strongest earnings for major U.S. oil companies since 2022, when global energy markets were roiled. LSEG analyst estimates show Exxon Mobil is forecast to report approximately $15.9 billion in adjusted net income for the quarter, a figure more than triple its first-quarter results. Chevron is projected to report about $9.9 billion, also more than triple its prior-quarter earnings.
Part of the swing versus the first quarter may reflect accounting reversals - particularly the unwinding of first-quarter losses tied to derivatives used to hedge crude and refined-product exposure. But most analysts attribute the bulk of the improvement to market fundamentals: stronger crack spreads, robust demand and an export market that has absorbed U.S. refinery output as overseas supplies tightened.
Energy advisory TPH estimated that U.S. gasoline crack spreads averaged roughly $25 a barrel in the second quarter, about $16 higher than in the prior quarter. Diesel crack spreads were estimated at about $45 a barrel for the quarter, roughly $15 higher and at their strongest levels since mid-2022. Those margin improvements have materially lifted refining profitability and, by extension, integrated oil companies' bottom lines.
Robust export demand amplified the impact on U.S. refiners as international buyers faced shortages tied to the conflict and related disruptions.
Capital returns and political optics
Despite consumer frustration over pump prices, analysts at BMO Capital Markets expect the industry to continue prioritizing shareholder returns over production growth, forecasting an acceleration of share buybacks in the second half of 2026. That emphasis on capital returns has been a defining feature of the sector's post-pandemic strategy and may further complicate public relations as profits climb.
One executive summed up the industry's dilemma bluntly: "Being the boogeyman is not particularly fun. But we need to educate officials that this is a cyclical industry and that no one cares when the market turns and we are taking all the risk."
With gasoline retail averages near roughly $3.85 per gallon, the administration has publicly stated a desire to see averages approach about $2.50 a gallon - some 11% below the low reached during the current presidency of around $2.81 in late December. While benchmark crude has moved back toward pre-war levels, U.S. gasoline remains about 22% higher than before the Iran conflict, underscoring the role of refining margins, inventories and regulatory inputs in determining consumer prices.
As the second-quarter results land in the coming weeks, the energy sector will face both market and political scrutiny. For now, analysts point to a combination of stronger refining economics, constrained inventories and elevated export demand as the principal drivers of the significant profit rebound being forecast for Big Oil.