Morgan Stanley has modeled an aggressive growth trajectory for SpaceX, estimating the company could produce $3.4 trillion in revenue by 2040, according to a report that cited people familiar with the matter.
The firm sees substantial expansion coming from SpaceX's artificial intelligence arm. Morgan Stanley's projection places AI-sourced revenue at about $190 billion in 2030, with the banks broader forecast pointing to roughly $330 billion in total revenue for that year.
These estimates surfaced as SpaceX began meeting with investors on Thursday as part of an initial public offering roadshow. The company is targeting $75 billion in proceeds, a sum that would make the offering the largest IPO on record if achieved. Morgan Stanley is acting as one of the lead underwriters on the deal, together with Goldman Sachs, BofA Securities, Citigroup and J.P. Morgan.
The projections sit alongside recent reported financial results for SpaceX. The company's revenue rose to $18.67 billion in 2025 from $14.02 billion in 2024. Despite that top-line increase, SpaceX posted a net loss of $4.94 billion in 2025, compared with a net profit of $791 million the prior year. SpaceX's AI segment reported $3.2 billion in revenue in 2025.
Other firms are issuing their own AI forecasts for SpaceX. Goldman Sachs has modeled a notably larger AI revenue figure, expecting the AI division to bring in approximately $322 billion by 2030, according to a separate report.
The Morgan Stanley outlook was described to reporters as part of the material circulated around the IPO roadshow and underwriting process. The bank is among several global investment firms underwriting the sale as SpaceX engages with potential investors.
Summary of the projection and context
Morgan Stanley projects $3.4 trillion in SpaceX revenue by 2040, driven mainly by rapid growth in its AI business. The bank expects about $190 billion in AI revenue by 2030 and total revenue near $330 billion that year. These projections were reported while SpaceX started its IPO investor meetings and seeks $75 billion in proceeds.
- Key points:
- SpaceX's projected long-term revenue - $3.4 trillion by 2040, according to Morgan Stanley.
- AI revenue expectations - Morgan Stanley sees $190 billion from AI in 2030; Goldman Sachs projects $322 billion for AI by 2030.
- IPO context - SpaceX began investor meetings for a planned $75 billion IPO; Morgan Stanley is a lead underwriter among several global banks.
- Risks and uncertainties:
- Model sensitivity - The forecasts rely heavily on rapid expansion of SpaceX's AI operations, which are subject to technological and market risks impacting the technology sector.
- Financial performance - Recent results show a large net loss in 2025 despite revenue growth, a factor that could affect investor perception in equity markets and the underwriting process.
- IPO execution - Achieving $75 billion in proceeds would set a record; the size and success of the offering may be influenced by market conditions and investor appetite.