Wall Street investors polled by Goldman Sachs anticipate continued constraints on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz this year, according to results from the Goldman Sachs Marquee MarketView survey.
The poll found that a majority of respondents expect traffic through the strait to not resume normal levels until the end of July or later. Within the institutional client subgroup, roughly four in 10 said they do not expect the strait to return to normal traffic levels until after July.
Respondents also provided a range of expectations for Brent crude prices. Some 18% of those surveyed said they expect Brent crude to be $100 a barrel or higher by the end of the year. About one quarter of respondents projected Brent would trade between $90 and $100 by the end of 2026, while 33% estimated prices would be between $80 and $90.
For immediate context, futures for Brent crude settled at $100.06 a barrel on Thursday.
Poll findings in brief
- The Goldman Sachs Marquee MarketView poll indicates expectations for constrained Strait of Hormuz access to continue through at least the middle of the year.
- A majority of surveyed investors expect normal traffic to resume by the end of July or later; about 40% of institutional respondents expect normalization after July.
- Price forecasts for Brent crude among respondents vary: 18% foresee $100 or more by year-end; about 25% project $90 to $100 by end of 2026; 33% expect $80 to $90.
Implications flagged by respondents
The poll responses underline expectations for relatively tight oil supplies in the near term, reflected both in the timing participants assign to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and in their distribution of Brent price outcomes.
Limitations
The poll reports investor expectations and price projections but does not provide underlying causal analysis or additional market details beyond the percent distributions and the noted Brent futures settlement price. Where respondents differ, the poll presents those differences rather than reconciling them into a single forecast.