Goldman Sachs has highlighted recurring seasonal patterns in the trucking market that, historically, have seen spot truckload rates firming up in the latter part of the year. In the investment bank's review of past cycles, spot rates tend to accelerate through September and then strengthen further during the November and December period tied to holiday freight and heightened shopping activity.
The bank's observations come against a backdrop of notable performance from trucking equities so far this year. Through August, trucking stocks were up 31.5% year-to-date, outperforming transportation stocks excluding trucking, which rose 21.0%, and the S&P 500, which returned 12.0% over the same span. Much of the sector's advance followed a rise in spot trucking rates during the first half of 2026.
Despite that outperformance, trucking names have not been immune to recent weakness. On average, the stocks have retraced about 16.0% from the peaks they reached in June and July as spot trucking rates declined in the more recent weeks.
Goldman notes that the seasonal cadence historically aligns with periods when equity strength in the trucking group re-emerges—often in October and November—mirroring the seasonal firming in spot freight pricing. The firm points to the November-December holiday freight and shopping season as a recurring period of additional spot-rate strength.
In terms of individual coverage, Goldman Sachs maintains buy ratings on several large truckload carriers: Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings, Werner Enterprises, and Schneider National. Those ratings reflect the firm's view that these names may benefit if the historical seasonal pattern materializes again.
Context and constraints
The analysis presented by Goldman is based on historical patterns in spot trucking rates and their historical relationship with equity performance in the trucking sector. The report documents recent market moves and analysts' ratings but does not provide forward-looking guarantees.
Data points cited
- Trucking equities: +31.5% year-to-date through August.
- Transportation stocks excluding trucking: +21.0% year-to-date through August.
- S&P 500: +12.0% year-to-date through August.
- Average pullback from June-July peaks among trucking stocks: -16.0%.
- Noted period of historical spot-rate acceleration: through September, with added strength in November-December.