Stock Markets July 9, 2026 08:40 AM

Goldman: Reversal of AI and Momentum Trade Pressures Hedge Fund Returns

Systematic strategies see largest drawdown since 2025 as managers cut AI longs and de-risk portfolios

By Caleb Monroe
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Goldman Sachs' Prime desk says the AI-driven momentum trade that dominated much of 2026 has flipped since June 22, inflicting notable losses on hedge funds. Systematic managers sustained the largest hit, while fundamental long-short funds fared somewhat better despite trimming AI exposures that had driven year-to-date alpha.

Goldman: Reversal of AI and Momentum Trade Pressures Hedge Fund Returns
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Key Points

  • Systematic hedge funds fell 3.6% since June 22, marking their worst drawdown since summer 2025 and reducing their year-to-date gains from 14.4% to 10.8%.
  • Fundamental long-short managers declined 2.2% over the same period but remain up 15.5% for the year, with only 0.8 percentage points of the loss attributed to alpha.
  • The losses were concentrated on the short side, led by U.S. equities, then developed Asia and Europe; momentum and crowded positioning were identified as the primary drags.

Hedge funds have experienced meaningful losses across long-short strategies after the artificial intelligence and momentum trade that buoyed returns through much of 2026 reversed direction beginning June 22, Goldman Sachs' Prime desk reported.

Systematic managers have borne the heaviest impact, sliding 3.6% in what Goldman Sachs characterized as their worst drawdown since the summer of 2025. That decline erased roughly one-quarter of the cohort's cumulative gains for the year, leaving systematic strategies with a 10.8% year-to-date return, down from 14.4% recorded on June 22.

Goldman Sachs said the bulk of the deterioration was concentrated on the short side of portfolios, with U.S. equities leading losses, followed by developed Asian and European markets. The bank attributed the weakness to momentum dynamics and crowded positioning.

By contrast, fundamental long-short managers have weathered the move better on an absolute basis. Goldman Sachs reported these managers slipped 2.2% since June 22 but remain up 15.5% for the year. Of that recent decline, just 0.8 percentage points was identified as alpha, with exposure to information technology and momentum factors responsible for the remainder of the loss.

Goldman Sachs emphasized the reactions of fundamental managers as a notable development, stating that many are aggressively trimming the AI-related long positions that generated their entire year-to-date alpha through June 22. That process of unwinding has removed momentum exposure from portfolios and driven gross leverage toward the bottom decile over the past year, according to the bank.

The dynamics described by Goldman Sachs highlight a pullback in positions that had been concentrated around AI themes and momentum strategies. Systematic funds have seen a material hit to recent gains, while fundamental managers are actively reducing AI-long exposure that had been central to their earlier outperformance.


Context and market scope

  • Losses are most acute for systematic, model-driven strategies.
  • Short-side pressures were concentrated in U.S. equities, with developed Asia and Europe also affected.
  • Information technology and momentum exposures contributed to recent declines for fundamental long-short funds.

Risks

  • Ongoing unwinding of AI-related long positions could continue to remove momentum exposure from portfolios, pressuring funds with concentrated AI bets - impacting hedge funds and managers with heavy technology exposure.
  • Elevated short-side losses in U.S. equities and spillover into developed Asian and European markets create uncertainty for strategies reliant on cross-market short positions - affecting equity markets and global long-short strategies.
  • Reduced gross leverage, pushed into the bottom decile over the past year, may limit managers' ability to re-leverage quickly if market conditions reverse - relevant to risk-taking capacity across hedge fund strategies.

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