William Blair has begun coverage of Advanced Micro Devices with a Market Perform recommendation, according to a research note from analyst Sebastien Naji issued on Thursday. The firm set out a mix of bullish top-line projections tied to AI demand and cautionary views on competitive dynamics across key product lines.
In its analysis, William Blair described AMD as a significant potential beneficiary of the AI infrastructure expansion. The firm said compute demand is being accelerated by more advanced models and by the growing use of inference and agentic applications. Based on that backdrop, William Blair projects AMD's sales will expand from $52 billion in 2026 to in excess of $104 billion by 2028, and expects non-GAAP earnings per share to approach $20 in 2028.
Despite those growth projections, the note emphasizes limits to AMD's ability to capture share in certain markets. William Blair characterized AMD's graphics processing unit business as "an uphill battle" versus Nvidia. The firm acknowledged that AMD "has done a commendable job of accelerating its product roadmap," but said competition from Nvidia and the widening set of hyperscaler ASIC programs are likely to constrain material GPU share gains.
On the CPU front, William Blair warned that the period of relatively easy share gains for AMD is coming to an end. It pointed to unprecedented competitive pressure from the Arm ecosystem as hyperscalers, Nvidia, Qualcomm and Arm itself introduce their own CPU offerings. The firm also observed that Intel is "starting to show signs of improvement," but added it will likely take roughly two years before Intel can mount an effective challenge to AMD's competitiveness.
From a valuation standpoint, William Blair noted that AMD shares trade at 33 times the firm's 2027 earnings estimate, representing a modest premium to the peer group median. The firm views that multiple as reflecting the trade-off between robust AI computing demand and a set of execution and market risks. In particular, William Blair highlighted competition, potential supply tightness and the possibility of a slowdown in AI spending growth as factors that could weigh on the outlook.
What this means
- William Blair's Market Perform start positions AMD as exposed to AI-driven revenue upside while remaining vulnerable to competitive erosion in GPUs and CPUs.
- The firm's financial projections are sizable: revenue rising from $52 billion in 2026 to over $104 billion in 2028, with non-GAAP EPS approaching $20 by 2028.
- AMD's current valuation at 33x William Blair's 2027 EPS estimate is a modest premium to peers and is presented as balancing upside from AI demand against noted risks.
Key sectors affected
- Semiconductors and chipmakers
- AI infrastructure and data center compute
- Cloud and hyperscaler procurement strategies