Deutsche Bank upgraded its recommendation on Aena to "hold" from "sell" after Spain’s Council of Ministers signed off on a 0.33% annual increase in tariffs under the Dora III regulatory plan, a move the broker says reduces a previously identified regulatory risk.
Analyst Harishankar Ramamoorthy also lifted the firms price target for Aena to €24 from €20. Aenas shares last closed at €25 on September 15.
The Dora III investment programme is set at roughly €13 billion. Under the plan, passenger volumes are forecast to increase from 321 million in 2025 to 346 million in 2031, which corresponds to a compound annual growth rate of 1.3% over that period.
Deutsche Bank had earlier modeled a different trajectory, estimating tariffs would decline by about 2% per year. That projection used a stronger passenger growth assumption of 3.5% CAGR for 2025-31. By contrast, Aenas year-to-date passenger growth in Spain stands at 4.1%.
On returns, the broker noted that the implied return allowed on the regulatory asset base under Dora III is likely above 8%. Aena had sought a 9% allowed return, while the Spanish regulator CNMC had taken a view of 7.4%. Ramamoorthy described the outcome as appearing "generous."
Taken together, the approved tariff adjustment and the program metrics were sufficient for Deutsche Bank to reduce the regulatory risk premium embedded in its view of Aena and to move the recommendation up one notch while increasing the price target.
Investors watching the stock will note the updated target and the central planning assumptions under Dora III, including the investment envelope and the passenger forecasts. Those elements underpin Deutsche Banks revised assessment of Aenas regulatory exposure and potential cash flow trajectory under the new framework.
While the brokers revised stance reflects the immediate easing of a key regulatory concern, market participants will continue to monitor how the allowed return and realized passenger trends compare with the differing assumptions highlighted by Deutsche Bank and the CNMC.