Stock Markets September 16, 2026 05:05 AM

Citi Survey: AI Features Accelerating Smartphone Replacement Cycles; Apple Favored to Expand Share

Consumers indicate shorter device holding periods and heightened interest in AI-enabled phones and PCs, with regional differences in demand patterns

By Maya Rios
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Citi's latest survey finds that consumers plan to replace smartphones more frequently, with average holding periods shrinking to between 2.1 and 2.7 years from prior ranges of 2.9 to 4.3 years across regions. Demand for AI-capable devices is a key driver, lifting purchase consideration for Apple amid interest from older iPhone owners in Apple Intelligence features. The survey also signals potential Mac share gains and strong interest in AI PCs, particularly in China and the US.

Citi Survey: AI Features Accelerating Smartphone Replacement Cycles; Apple Favored to Expand Share
LNVGY DELL AAPL HPQ GOOGL
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Key Points

  • Consumers plan to shorten smartphone holding periods to about 2.1-2.7 years from prior estimates of 2.9-4.3 years across regions, driven in part by interest in AI-enabled devices - sectors impacted: smartphones, mobile services.
  • Apple purchase consideration outstrips current ownership in multiple markets, supporting potential share gains; Apple Services penetration also increased - sectors impacted: consumer electronics, digital services.
  • PC purchase intentions favor Mac share growth and show strong interest in AI PCs, especially in China and the US, a trend Citi says benefits major PC makers including Lenovo, Dell, Apple and HP - sectors impacted: PCs, enterprise and consumer hardware.

Citi released survey findings showing consumers intend to shorten the time they keep smartphones, with holding periods now projected at roughly 2.1 to 2.7 years compared with previous estimates of 2.9 to 4.3 years across all regions surveyed.

The research points to a growing appetite for AI-enabled devices as an important factor behind the shift. In particular, owners of older iPhone models expressed an interest in gaining access to Apple Intelligence features, and across markets purchase consideration for Apple exceeded current ownership levels - a signal that could support share gains for the company.

Interest in form factor innovations and AI-capable handsets varied by market. Foldable smartphones registered strong consumer interest in the US and UK, while demand for AI-focused phones was strongest in China and the US, according to the survey results. The report also noted growth in Apple Services penetration, indicating deeper engagement with Apple’s ecosystem among users.

Turning to personal computers, stated purchase intentions pointed toward increased Mac share across all regions, accompanied by elevated interest in AI-capable PCs, with China and the US showing particularly strong demand for those models. Citi characterized this pattern as favorable for leading PC manufacturers, naming Lenovo (OTC:LNVGY), Dell (NYSE:DELL), Apple and HP (NYSE:HPQ) among the beneficiaries.

Tablet preferences held steady in the survey, with the iPad maintaining a dominant position in most markets. That said, Samsung, Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Xiaomi and Huawei received higher consideration in select regions, indicating pockets of competitive traction. Despite shifting purchase intentions toward Mac devices, Windows remains the dominant operating system for PCs, a dynamic the survey highlighted.

Overall, the survey outlines a market environment where shorter upgrade cycles and interest in AI features are reshaping consumer preferences across smartphones and PCs, while tablet demand appears comparatively stable.

Risks

  • Regional variation in consumer preferences - the survey indicates stronger AI-phone demand in China and the US and stronger foldable interest in the US and UK, implying uneven market opportunities across regions - impacts: smartphone and PC manufacturers.
  • Windows remains the dominant desktop operating system despite shifting purchase intentions toward Macs, suggesting persistent platform-level resistance to rapid share shifts - impacts: PC makers and software ecosystems.
  • Tablet demand appears relatively stable with iPad dominance maintained, which may limit meaningful market share movement in the tablet segment despite increased consideration for alternative brands in select markets - impacts: tablet manufacturers and component suppliers.

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