Overview
Tuesday’s primary schedule includes consequential nominations in New York, Maryland and Utah, with runoffs in South Carolina. Several races stand out for the way they intersect with intra-party dynamics, campaign spending and candidate profiles that could influence national political narratives heading into November. Below we walk through the four contests drawing the most attention.
Mamdani’s bid to reshape New York’s delegation
Although New York’s mayor is not a congressional candidate, he has positioned himself as a force in the city’s House races by endorsing three challengers aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America. Those endorsements back Darializa Avila Chevalier and Brad Lander against two current Democratic members of Congress, and support Assembly Member Claire Valdez in a competitive primary for an open Queens seat.
Avila Chevalier, described in campaign materials as an activist and doctoral student, is taking on Adriano Espaillat, a five-term congressman who chairs the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and represents a district that spans northern Manhattan and the Bronx. Lander, a former New York City comptroller and one-time mayoral candidate, is running against Representative Dan Goldman in Lower Manhattan. Goldman is a former federal prosecutor who led House Democrats’ investigation into the first impeachment of President Donald Trump. Valdez is contesting a crowded primary to succeed retiring Representative Nydia Velazquez, facing Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso and New York City Council Member Julie Won among others in a district covering parts of Brooklyn and Queens.
The mayor has criticized other elected Democrats for what he regards as insufficiently adversarial positions toward Israel in its war on Hamas, a central issue motivating his interventions. His endorsements create a public clash with House Democratic Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who has a partywide responsibility to defend incumbents and to marshal the caucus in its effort to retake the majority. If Democrats regain control of the House in November, Jeffries would move into a position that places him third in line to the presidency.
While the outcomes in these three New York districts are not expected to alter Democrats’ overall path to a House majority, they will function as a barometer of the mayor’s influence and the organizational strength of the democratic socialist wing.
Mike Lawler’s district: which Democrat will take on the incumbent?
The lower Hudson Valley district represented by Republican Mike Lawler is among the most closely watched House primaries on Tuesday because it is a prime flip opportunity for Democrats. The seat was narrowly won by Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 by 0.6 percentage points, though Lawler secured reelection by 6 percentage points most recently.
Democrats vying to challenge Lawler include Cait Conley, a combat veteran and national security expert who is a member of a group of female veterans running for office labeled the "Hell Cats," and Rockland County Legislator Beth Davidson. The district is one of three currently held by Republicans that Harris carried in the prior cycle, making it a focal point for the party aiming to reclaim control of the House.
Despite a national environment that has recently favored Democrats in some measures, Lawler enters the general election likely with a substantial campaign finance advantage: he is expected to have a cash advantage of approximately $3 million to $4 million over the Democratic nominee.
A crowded Manhattan primary to replace Nadler
In Manhattan, the contest to replace Representative Jerry Nadler has attracted a diverse slate that includes two state assembly members, an attorney who was once married to a prominent Trump adviser, and Jack Schlossberg, a member of the Kennedy family.
An Emerson College poll released last month showed Assembly Members Micah Lasher, who previously served as an aide to Nadler, and Alex Bores in a statistical tie. Both were substantially ahead of attorney George Conway and Jack Schlossberg, who were polling in the low double digits. Notably, nearly a third of likely primary voters surveyed remained undecided, leaving open the possibility that a lesser-known contender could close the gap on primary day.
Stand for New York, a super PAC funded by former Mayor Michael Bloomberg, has spent more than $10 million in support of Lasher. Think Big, a pro-AI super PAC, has spent nearly $8 million opposing Bores, while Bores benefits from backing by three other super PACs. Schlossberg, at 33 years old and the grandson of President John F. Kennedy, is an outlier in the field: he brings a relatively brief professional record but has cultivated a large following on social media platforms, including more than 850,000 followers on TikTok.
Observers note that the primary’s winner will be heavily favored in the November general election in this Manhattan district.
Trump’s dual endorsement in the South Carolina runoff
In South Carolina, Republican voters will decide between Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette and Attorney General Alan Wilson in a runoff that will determine the GOP nominee for governor. After initially endorsing Evette, former President Donald Trump signaled that both finalists are acceptable to him. In a message posted on his platform, he wrote that both were the candidates he had hoped would reach the runoff and that he would therefore endorse both Evette and Wilson.
The statement arrives at a moment when the reach of Trump’s endorsements has produced mixed results. In recent weeks, his backing has been associated with the ousters of Republican Senators John Cornyn and Bill Cassidy and Representatives Thomas Massie and Nancy Mace. At the same time, two of his gubernatorial endorsements have faltered: Iowa voters narrowly rejected Trump-backed Representative Randy Feenstra in favor of businessman and farmer Zach Lahn earlier this month, and Georgia voters selected billionaire healthcare executive Rick Jackson over Trump-endorsed Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones last week.
The victor of the South Carolina runoff will face Democratic state Representative Jermaine Johnson in the general election. Given that the state was carried by former President Trump by 18 percentage points in 2024, the Republican nominee is widely expected to have the advantage in November.
Why these primaries matter
Collectively, these contests illustrate how endorsements, PAC spending and social media prominence intersect with traditional campaign variables like fundraising and local organizational strength. They also underscore the fault lines within and between parties over issues ranging from foreign policy to technological priorities. While no single primary on Tuesday is projected to decisively shift the national partisan map, outcomes will inform expectations about candidate quality, message discipline and the leverage of distinct political factions ahead of the fall campaigns.
For voters and market observers alike, the races provide snapshots of where influence is consolidating - whether in city halls, in well-funded super PACs, or on social platforms - and how that influence may translate into legislative priorities if those candidates win in November.