Overview
Norilsk Nickel, the world's largest producer of palladium and a key refined nickel supplier, has released forward supply outlooks that point to modest surpluses in both metals over the coming years. The miner projected a palladium surplus of 0.3 million ounces in 2026 and 0.2 million ounces in 2027, with those figures calculated excluding investment flows and stock movements.
Palladium outlook
The company said palladium output in Russia is expected to resume growth next year, reaching approximately 2.7 million ounces. Norilsk Nickel attributed the anticipated rise in Russian production to a gradual increase in output from the Chernogorskoye deposit. The firm’s projections for 2026 and 2027 palladium balances explicitly omit investment and inventory changes from the calculations.
Nickel outlook
On nickel, Norilsk Nickel forecasts a global surplus of roughly 20,000 metric tons for the current year, expanding to about 55,000 metric tons by 2027. The company emphasized that its nickel market projections are highly contingent on what happens in Indonesia, the world’s dominant nickel producer.
"The volume of approved quotas, the actual rate of their utilisation, sulphur availability, and further regulatory decisions will determine whether the market remains close to balance or returns to a more pronounced surplus," the company said in a statement.
Implications and context
The outlook released by Norilsk Nickel sets expectations for a period in which both palladium and nickel could be supplied in excess of underlying demand as measured without inventory and investment adjustments. The company’s note draws attention to specific production drivers within Russia for palladium and to policy and operational factors in Indonesia for nickel that could sway the degree of surplus.
Conclusion
Norilsk Nickel’s published forecasts signal anticipated surpluses in palladium for 2026-27 and a widening nickel surplus through 2027, while highlighting key geographical and operational variables that will shape final market balances.