Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
7,192 total articles
A U.S. weather agency's forecast of an 81% probability of a very strong El Niño through the October-December period is prompting concern among investors and central bankers. The event is likely to produce drought in parts of Asia and heavy rains in South America, endangering harvests, elevating food and electricity prices, and potentially forcing e…
Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo unexpectedly resigned on Monday for personal reasons, a move accepted by President Prabowo Subianto. Senior Deputy Governor Destry Damayanti will act as interim governor pending appointment of a permanent successor. The rupiah weakened and the benchmark stock index fell following the announcement, while the cen…
Planned changes to Germany’s sick-note regime - including the removal of telephone sick notes and allowing employers to demand medical certificates from day one - aim to curb rising absenteeism and boost productivity. Researchers and health-insurer data, however, highlight that elevated sick leave is concentrated in occupations with high emotional …
The Reserve Bank of India is widely expected to maintain its policy repo rate at 5.25% at the August 3-5 Monetary Policy Committee meeting and to keep rates on hold for the remainder of the year, according to a Reuters poll of economists conducted July 21-27. While consumer inflation ticked up to 4.38% in June - the first reading above the RBI's 4%…
A fragile halt in hostilities between the U.S. and Iran, alongside renewed attacks by the Houthis on Saudi oil infrastructure, has been interpreted by markets as a tentative step toward de-escalation. Brent crude fell roughly 4% to $92.80. Equities showed modest gains, with Nasdaq futures rising about 1%, though Asian markets softened ahead of heav…
The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1% at a two-day meeting concluding on Friday, while signalling the possibility of additional rate increases in future statements. Rising producer prices tied to an energy shock, a depreciating yen and robust global demand for AI-related products are increasing upside risks to inflat…
Yardeni Research argues Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is signaling a move away from tying policy to the headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate and toward measures that emphasize persistent price pressures. Warsh has avoided explicitly naming headline PCE as the policy benchmark and has urged focus on underlying inflatio…
U.S. equities enter a pivotal week as investors await a Federal Reserve policy decision and a wave of corporate earnings dominated by major technology firms spending heavily on artificial intelligence. Recent steep drops in Alphabet and Tesla have already trimmed major indexes, and rising oil and Treasury yields add to market uncertainty. Attention…
Goldman Sachs projects that the five task forces established by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will likely recommend limited, compromise-oriented adjustments rather than sweeping reforms. Consensus among FOMC members should constrain the scope of changes to Fed communications, the balance sheet, economic data practices, AI considerations, and th…
India said it obtained tariff exemptions for roughly 45% of its exports to the United States after trade talks placed those goods in a lower category under President Donald Trump's trade framework. Exempt items include generic medicines, smartphones, steel, aluminium and auto parts; the remaining 55% of exports will face an additional 10% U.S. levy…
Fire crews and local farmers continued efforts to contain wildfires encroaching on residential zones around Bordeaux on Sunday, as authorities widened evacuation orders across southwestern France. The fires, driven by unusually high temperatures and dry conditions, have forced roughly 220,000 people to leave affected areas and raised alarms about p…
The United States and Japan participated with the Philippines in five days of maritime drills in the South China Sea from July 21 to July 25. The exercises, involving warships, coast guard vessels, surveillance aircraft and fighter jets, were described by Manila as focused on improving interoperability. The drills followed a reported encounter at S…
In his first major interview since taking office, British Prime Minister Andy Burnham said he would challenge U.S. President Donald Trump when necessary to protect the United Kingdom's national interests. Speaking to the BBC, Burnham described an initially warm exchange with Trump but declined to directly answer whether he trusted the U.S. leader. …
China’s steep reduction in crude imports has helped blunt upward pressure on global oil prices, but analysts warn that continued declines in inventories outside China and a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could still push prices above $120 a barrel. China shifted from stockpiling to inventory drawdowns in 2025, cutting imports sharply whi…
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirmed that his administration will formally challenge the United States new twelve point five percent tariff on Australian goods. Canberra intends to address the levy directly with U.S. President Donald Trump while reinforcing domestic modern slavery enforcement protocols.
On July 25, the 1st U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals declined the Trump administration’s request to lift an injunction that prevents enforcement of a March executive order tightening mail-in voting rules in 23 states and the District of Columbia. The court, in a 2-1 decision, agreed with a lower-court judge that key components of the directive raise c…
Bank of America Global Research cautions that ongoing oil-price volatility, driven by shipping disruptions and geopolitical tensions, risks embedding itself into core inflation after five years of inflation running above targets. The report argues that downward-rigid prices in broader goods and services mean supply-driven energy shocks may no longe…
BCA Research expects China’s economic momentum to deteriorate over the next six to nine months as weak borrowing demand, an ongoing property downturn and moderating export support blunt the effects of accelerated fiscal outlays. Policymakers are likely to push measures already authorised rather than introduce a wide-ranging stimulus at the late-Jul…
Kuwait Petroleum Corporation has agreed to a $16 billion lease and leaseback deal for its crude oil pipeline network with Blackstone, KKR and Brookfield. The pact, dubbed Project Peregrine, will create a joint venture for 20.5 years in which the three investors hold 49% and Kuwait Oil Company retains a 51% controlling stake. The transaction is expe…
Andy Burnham has appointed John Healey as Chancellor of the Exchequer. Citi analysts judge the move broadly positive for markets, but the incoming government faces limited fiscal headroom and competing demands from defence and domestic commitments. Key questions for investors will be whether Healey can reconcile tougher fiscal signals with funding …
President Donald Trump said talks with Tehran are ongoing and suggested a planned "massive" strike may not be necessary as Iran shows greater seriousness in negotiations. At the same time, he kept U.S. forces "locked and loaded." Tehran rejected U.S. pressure while diplomatic exchanges with Russia and China took place. Military incidents at sea and…
Liberty Justice Center brought a lawsuit Friday in the Court of International Trade contesting President Trump's recently announced tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on several major trading partners. The group says the duties exceed the authority granted under the Trade Act of 1974 and represent an effort to restore a broader tariff policy previously struck…
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said the United States will lift the 35% tariffs on Serbian goods, cutting the rate to zero effective Friday evening. The tariffs, imposed last year, hit mainly small and medium-sized firms across several sectors. Vucic also indicated the rate could later be set between 10% and 12%, and said the change should help…
Two American small businesses have filed suit in the U.S. trade court in New York challenging President Donald Trump’s latest tariffs on goods from 60 trading partners. The plaintiffs argue the tariffs exceed the president’s legal authority, contend that the policy lacks required country-specific findings on forced labor, and say the action attempt…
European government bond yields fell on Friday following a session where they reached multi-year highs, as oil prices eased back from the $100-per-barrel threshold. Germany's 10-year yield dropped modestly, while markets weighed the inflationary implications of recent energy-driven price swings and fresh U.S. tariffs.
