Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
7,101 total articles
Initial claims for U.S. state unemployment benefits declined by 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 187,000 for the week ended July 18, below Reuters economists' forecasts of 212,000. The report, which covers the survey week for the July national employment report, also showed a fall in people on jobless benefit rolls to 1.796 million in the week ended…
The European Central Bank kept its key deposit rate at 2.25%, citing significant uncertainty tied to an energy price shock related to the ongoing war in the Middle East. While headline inflation in the 21-member euro area is near 3% annually, the bank said the full impact of higher energy costs on prices and wages has not yet materialized. The ECB …
Short sellers have amassed an estimated $15.5 billion in unrealized gains since SpaceX completed its mid-June IPO, according to Ortex Technologies. The company's shares have fallen below the $135 IPO price after peaking at $225.64, with large portions of the free float on loan and fresh lows reached near $115.26. Market participants cited volatilit…
Truflation's latest projection predicts headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation was unchanged month-over-month in June, with the annual headline rate easing to 3.7%. The firm's early read on core PCE - the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge - points to a 0.2% monthly rise and a 3.3% year-over-year increase, underscoring …
Futures tied to Canada's S&P/TSX 60 fell modestly Thursday morning as oil climbed and gold eased amid intensifying conflict in the Middle East. The pullback follows a record close for the TSX average in the previous session driven by higher commodity prices. U.S. futures also declined ahead of a slate of major corporate earnings, with tech-sector s…
Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen said they struck two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea with missiles and drones, hitting the Encelia and claiming an attack on the Layla as well. The incident comes amid fresh U.S.-Iran exchanges of strikes, warnings about a Houthi blockade of Saudi ports near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and market moves that lifted …
Turkey's central bank left its one-week repo rate at 37%, maintaining the overnight lending rate at 40% and the overnight borrowing rate at 35.5%. The Monetary Policy Committee said the underlying trend of inflation eased slightly in June but that leading indicators point to a temporary rise in July. Officials highlighted growing energy price press…
ING Economics argues that sterling’s advance against the euro in the past month reflects market mechanics - including positioning, carry trades and merger-and-acquisition flows - rather than a durable improvement in Britain’s underlying economic fundamentals. The broker forecasts EUR/GBP will move higher to 0.88 by year-end and to 0.90 in 2027, whi…
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s decision to avoid forward guidance on interest rates is confronting renewed inflation risks from rising oil prices and potential new tariffs. Several Fed officials have adopted a firmer tone, signaling willingness to tighten policy if inflation does not resume a downward path. With the Fed meeting scheduled for J…
Senator Elizabeth Warren has accused leading artificial intelligence companies of lobbying U.S. trade negotiators to restrict regulatory access to AI model information within the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. In a letter to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, Warren, the top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, called for the removal of …
A renewed jump in oil prices tied to escalated Middle East hostilities lifted euro-zone government bond yields to multi-year highs and refocused attention on a closely watched European Central Bank meeting. Weak results from STMicroelectronics weighed on some equity sectors in Europe, while Asian markets, led by South Korea's KOSPI and key memory a…
China's commerce ministry said it is collecting views from domestic firms, industry groups and local authorities on a proposed reciprocal tariff-cut arrangement with the United States that would apply to roughly $30 billion of trade. Officials said teams from both capitals are closely coordinating the structure and operating model of a joint Board …
U.S. futures moved lower as investors digested quarterly reports from major technology firms including Alphabet, Tesla and IBM, while escalating U.S.-Iran exchanges and Houthi attacks lifted oil and revived inflation concerns. Alphabet and Tesla reported rising capital expenditure and negative free cash flow tied to AI-related investment. IBM pared…
A wide majority of economists surveyed expect the Bank of Japan to lift its policy rate again by the end of December, with many flagging October as a possible timing. The poll highlights the central bank's dilemma: persistent inflation pressures amplified by a weak yen argue for further tightening, but faster hikes risk raising borrowing costs for …
The dollar held steady as renewed tensions between the United States and Iran supported demand for the safe-haven currency. A fresh round of U.S. strikes on Iran and Houthi claims of attacks on Saudi tankers helped lift Brent crude above $95 a barrel, stoking inflation worries and sending two-year U.S. Treasury yields to a 17-month high. The Japane…
U.S. equity benchmarks slipped as technology names delivered mixed results and traders positioned for a heavy slate of Big Tech earnings. The Nasdaq underperformed, the S&P 500 edged lower and the Dow was essentially flat. Heightened tensions in the Middle East pushed crude oil to its highest close since June 11, underpinning inflation concerns tha…
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told a Senate committee he hopes to secure interim trade arrangements with both Mexico and Canada by the end of the year, while more difficult changes to the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement are expected to be addressed in 2027. His testimony signals that a full renewal of the six-year-old pact will not be compl…
President Donald Trump will unveil an expanded Ratepayer Protection Pledge intended to prevent the rising electricity needs of data centers tied to the AI boom from increasing bills for ordinary households and businesses. The nonbinding pledge, now said to cover 80% of all power delivered to U.S. homes and businesses, is backed by governors, lawmak…
The European Central Bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting but signal that additional tightening could be required later in the year if higher energy prices drive inflation upward. Recent soft readings on wages, prices and activity have reduced immediate pressure to act, but a renewed rise in oil above $90 a bar…
U.S. equity benchmarks were mixed as the Nasdaq slipped on weakness in software names ahead of major tech earnings, while an intensifying Middle East conflict sent oil sharply higher and pushed Brent closer to $100 a barrel. The yen fell to a four-decade low against the dollar amid concerns about Japan’s policy credibility, and global bond yields t…
Argentina's economic activity declined 0.5% in May relative to April, marking a second straight monthly drop under President Javier Milei. On an annual basis the GDP proxy rose 0.2% versus May of the prior year, driven by agriculture and mining. Manufacturing and retail contracted, exports expanded, and indicators such as weak imports and tax recei…
Two-year U.S. Treasury yields rose to their highest level in 17 months after oil prices gained on renewed tensions involving Iran. The two-year note climbed 3.68 basis points to 4.298% and briefly hit 4.3105%, a level not seen since February 2025. Market participants have reconnected the geopolitical risk to the potential for higher inflation and a…
The Federal Communications Commission voted to prohibit sales in the United States of devices that include critical hardware from Chinese firms it has designated as national security risks. The measure targets component parts - including logic-bearing semiconductors - from companies such as Huawei, closing a gap that previously allowed some devices…
With seven days until the July 29 policy decision, swap traders are pricing a 30% chance of a 25 basis point rate increase and a 70% chance of no change. Chair Kevin Warsh's decision to remove the Fed's forward guidance has created an unusually uncertain backdrop ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, reviving a level of suspense last …
A U.S. federal judge scheduled a June 1, 2027 trial date for former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro in a drug-trafficking and narco-terrorism conspiracy case. The brief hearing in Manhattan was Maduro's first U.S. court appearance since March and set a pretrial timetable that includes evidence delivery and two rounds of pretrial motions. Maduro…
