Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
7,112 total articles
As the Middle East conflict approaches its eighth week, global markets are showing a clear divergence. U.S. equities have fully recovered losses recorded at the start of the war, but crude remains substantially elevated, keeping pressure on government bond markets and gold. Regional performance varies: large energy exporters have outperformed, whil…
The International Monetary Fund raised its projection for Russia's economic expansion in 2026 to 1.1% from 0.8%, citing stronger oil and commodity prices after disruptions to maritime oil routes. The IMF said momentum should carry a similar pace into 2027, even as the economy faces headwinds from tight monetary policy, Western sanctions and wartime…
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed confidence that core inflation in the United States will continue to decline even amid the Iran war, and he reiterated his recommendation that the Federal Reserve begin reducing interest rates. He acknowledged that Fed officials might wait to assess economic effects from the conflict, and he said the …
Citadel CEO Ken Griffin told the Semafor World Economy Forum that a sustained shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz could tip the global economy into recession within six to 12 months. He framed the situation as a severe energy-price shock, stressed the need to restore uninterrupted energy flows from the Middle East, and commented on geopolitical and do…
Portugal’s finance minister warned that government support after winter storms and higher energy costs tied to the Iran war could push the country into a small budget deficit. He said any gap should be limited to 0.5% of GDP to safeguard investor confidence, while reiterating the central scenario of a balanced budget and plans to continue reducing …
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent accused China of accumulating oil supplies and limiting exports of various goods amid the Middle East war. He likened the behavior to pandemic-era hoarding of medical supplies, said he has raised the matter with Chinese officials, and warned the primary pressure from China’s oil purchases is on Asian countries …
Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene told a Washington event that upside risks to inflation are her primary concern for the outlook on interest rates, while acknowledging downside demand risks and observing that data on second-round inflation effects remain mixed and could take months to appear.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde told Bloomberg Television in Washington that the eurozone economy has shifted away from the bank's Iran war base case scenario and now sits between the ECB's baseline and adverse forecasts. She said the central bank has no bias toward raising rates and emphasized that decisions will depend on incomi…
Prime Minister Mark Carney said he will suspend Canada’s federal fuel excise tax until Labor Day weekend, reducing gasoline prices by 10 Canadian cents per liter and diesel by 4 Canadian cents per liter. The move comes after gasoline prices rose roughly 45% in 2026, a rise the government attributes primarily to the Iran war. Carney framed the polic…
The International Monetary Fund warns that the war in the Middle East and the resulting rise in energy prices are increasing global financial stability risks. Markets have seen equity declines and jumpy bond yields since February; higher inflation expectations and issuance of short-term debt raise rollover vulnerabilities. The IMF highlights potent…
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said on Tuesday that the central bank may need to delay interest-rate cuts until 2027 if oil prices remain elevated. Speaking at the Semafor World Economy conference, Goolsbee emphasized the Fed's mandate to return inflation to 2% and highlighted the importance of developments in oil and core inflat…
Kevin Warsh's newly filed financial disclosure details significant holdings exceeding $100 million alongside numerous small investments grouped under DCM Investments 10 LLC worth no more than $500,000. The roster spans high-profile assets such as SpaceX and Polymarket, two Juggernaut Fund LP positions over $50 million tied to advisory work for the …
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday that the Federal Reserve should hold off on lowering interest rates as oil prices surge past $100 a barrel amid the ongoing war in Iran. Speaking at the Semafor World Economy conference in Washington, DC, Bessent described the Fed's current stance as appropriate and reiterated that while rate cuts m…
Indian startups offering domestic help for roughly $1 an hour have sparked a sharp rise in consumer demand and a steady flow of women into app-based cleaning roles. Companies including Pronto, Snabbit and listed Urban Company are expanding rapidly, training workers, and driving record daily orders by undercutting traditional pricing. The model prom…
Britain’s finance minister Rachel Reeves will use meetings at the International Monetary Fund in Washington to signal that the UK will review tax rules to make itself more attractive to high-earning expatriates affected by instability linked to the Iran conflict. The Treasury plans a consultation on the taxation of Limited Liability Companies and b…
The International Monetary Fund cut its 2026 growth forecast for emerging market and developing economies to 3.9% from 4.2% in January, citing higher energy and food costs and uncertainty stemming from the war in the Middle East. The IMF warned the fallout will be uneven, hitting commodity importers and countries closer to the conflict hardest, whi…
The International Monetary Fund has sharply reduced its growth forecast for the Middle East and North Africa, attributing the downgrade to production and export disruptions tied to the Iran war. The regional outlook for 2026 was lowered to 1.1%, with a projected rebound to 4.8% in 2027 contingent on a quick restoration of energy production and tran…
The International Monetary Fund now anticipates that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates gradually but at a marginally faster pace than its projection six months ago. The IMF's World Economic Outlook keeps near-term growth forecasts largely unchanged while flagging the offsetting effects of fiscal stimulus and fuel bill relief against exter…
The International Monetary Fund warns that the euro zone will experience slower growth and a rebound in inflation that will likely require higher interest rates from the European Central Bank, even assuming disruptions from the Iran war subside by mid-year. The IMF highlights the bloc's energy import dependence, the lingering effects of elevated en…
The International Monetary Fund has reduced its forecast for Turkey's 2026 economic expansion to 3.4% from a prior estimate of 4.2%, attributing the downgrade to softer-than-expected 2025 growth and the impact of elevated oil and gas prices. The IMF also cut its 2027 growth projection and raised inflation and current account deficit estimates for t…
The International Monetary Fund set out three alternative global growth scenarios for 2026 and 2027 reflecting different durations and intensities of the conflict in the Middle East. The IMF's main - or reference - forecast assumes a short-lived confrontation and relatively quick easing of energy price disruptions. Two downside scenarios envision l…
The Czech central bank reported that a supply shock to fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict pushed headline inflation close to the 2% target in March, eroding a prior buffer created by rapid economic growth and subdued consumer price pressures. Core inflation rose to 2.9% on stronger services inflation, and the bank warned that continued …
The International Monetary Fund's chief economist said central banks may need to tighten policy more aggressively if a prolonged Middle East conflict pushes up oil and commodity prices, arguing that the current economic slack means steeper rate moves could be required to achieve the same disinflation seen after the pandemic. The IMF also trimmed it…
The International Monetary Fund reduced its global growth projection as surging energy prices and supply disruptions tied to the Iran conflict raise the prospect of a widespread slowdown. The IMF set out three scenarios - reference, adverse and severe - that depend on the duration and intensity of the conflict and the path of oil prices. In its bas…
The International Monetary Fund reduced its growth forecasts for Germany for both 2026 and 2027 and raised its inflation outlook after a rise in oil and gas prices tied to the Iran conflict. The IMF's World Economic Outlook now projects slower expansion for Germany and the euro area, while urging targeted fiscal support and caution against broad fu…
