Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
6,527 total articles
France’s navy chief warned that China’s current approach — limited political engagement with Iran and an insufficient number of Chinese vessels through the Strait of Hormuz — will likely be inadequate to restore regular traffic. Admiral Nicolas Vaujour said China may need to take a more direct role, and that political coordination led by France wil…
President Donald Trump said he is coordinating with House and Senate Republican leaders to move a bill that would fund Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents and Border Patrol personnel through a process that does not require Democratic support. He has asked that the measure reach his desk by June 1 and said his administration has been us…
Investment advisors report a growing stack of risks confronting clients as the second quarter begins. Uncertainty about the trajectory of conflict, energy prices and knock-on effects from private credit problems have left investors uneasy. Stocks, bonds and even gold all weakened in the first quarter, undermining traditional diversification strateg…
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's updated nowcasts indicate that the Middle East conflict - through its impact on energy prices and supply chains - is likely to boost headline inflation measures for April, with smaller effects on core inflation. The bank's projections show sharper year-over-year increases in both the consumer price index and …
The Trump administration has submitted a revised plan to reduce staffing at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to 556 employees - roughly one third of its size at the start of the administration - stepping back from an earlier effort to eliminate nearly 90% of positions. The Justice Department filed the proposal with the U.S. Court of Appeals…
Demand for OpenAI shares is softening on secondary markets as institutional sellers report difficulty finding buyers, while Anthropic is drawing increased investor activity. Secondary-market brokers and platforms say the shift is tied to a large valuation differential between the two AI companies, and some banks are adjusting distribution terms for…
U.S. manufacturing expanded in March, with the Institute for Supply Management's PMI climbing to 52.7 from 52.4 in February. The gain came alongside a sharp rise in the survey's prices paid measure to 78.3 and a lengthening of supplier delivery times to 58.9, reflecting disrupted supply chains tied to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and related ship…
Alberto Musalem, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said Wednesday that while he views the current policy rate as appropriately placed for the near term, rising risks to inflation and employment mean officials must remain ready to raise or lower rates depending on incoming data. He reiterated support for recent decisions to hold ra…
Bank of America has updated its macro outlook after revising its oil price forecast, warning that surging energy costs will push headline PCE inflation toward 4% year-over-year in the coming months. The bank expects the rise to be temporary but now sees price levels at the end of next year about 50 basis points higher than previously forecast, driv…
St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem told a Washington audience that he does not see an immediate need to alter the Fed's policy rate, saying the current stance is well positioned to manage risks to both growth and inflation. He emphasized rising inflation risks from the Middle East conflict and cautioned that higher commodity prices…
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem told a Washington audience that the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision to keep the policy rate at 3.5% to 3.75% is likely to remain appropriate for some time. He described a baseline 2026 outlook of real GDP near potential, unemployment steady, and core inflation gradually easing tow…
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned that financial markets are pricing in more interest rate increases than the central bank is currently likely to deliver in response to economic disruption from the Iran war. Speaking at the central bank’s London headquarters, Bailey said the Monetary Policy Committee must balance risks to inflation with…
Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin told Reuters that both consumers and firms appear to be treating the recent spike in oil prices as a short-lived shock rather than a durable change that would materially alter spending, pricing or inflation expectations. Barkin, who is not a voter on interest rate policy this year, pointed to weekl…
Coca-Cola and its two authorized bottlers - Coca-Cola Beverages South Africa and Coca-Cola Peninsula Beverages - announced plans to invest 17.6 billion rand (about $1.05 billion) in South Africa through 2030. The company said the funds will back expanded production capacity, strengthen distribution networks and accelerate innovation across the Coca…
A poll of nearly 70 foreign-exchange strategists conducted March 27-April 1 indicates the U.S. dollar's modest uptick since the outbreak of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran will likely fade. Analysts point to an erosion in the dollar's safe-haven appeal, higher Treasury yields, a slide in gold and broader market dynamics - including oil price moves and…
Goldman Sachs argues that recent market bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes following the Iran conflict overstate the risk that rising oil prices will force tighter U.S. monetary policy. Analyst Manuel Abecasis points to a narrower supply shock, a less oil-dependent economy, easing labor market pressures, anchored inflation expectations, and already…
Mortgage rates on the widely used 30-year fixed loan rose 14 basis points last week to 6.57%, the highest reading since August, the Mortgage Bankers Association said. The jump follows a spike in oil prices tied to the United States and Israel's war on Iran and disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz, which lifted Treasury yields and pushed borrowing …
Bank of America has trimmed its projection for global growth in 2026 and raised its inflation outlook after assessing the economic impact of the Iran war as a "mild stagflation" shock. The bank cut its global growth forecast by 40 basis points to 3.1% while lifting its 2026 inflation forecast by 90 basis points to 3.3%. It also expects monetary pol…
Turkey has requested Iranian authorization for 11 Turkish-owned ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz, according to state-run Anadolu. Transport and Infrastructure Minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu said 14 Turkish-owned vessels remain in the strait, with three engaged in operations and not seeking departure. Iran has effectively blocked the waterway sin…
New-vehicle purchases in the United States are forecast to decline in the first quarter of 2026 as elevated borrowing costs, strong vehicle prices and the expiration of certain EV incentives dent buyer activity. Industry forecaster Cox Automotive projects a 6.5% year-on-year drop in Q1 sales and a 2.6% decline for the year. Rising oil prices tied t…
European Central Bank Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf said a protracted war in the Middle East increases the likelihood of a more persistent period of higher prices in the euro area, potentially moving the economy closer to the staff's adverse scenario. He noted energy prices are currently between the baseline and adverse projections and …
Ryanair's chief executive cautioned that ongoing hostilities in the Middle East could put as much as 25% of the airline's jet fuel supply at risk during May and June. The warning, delivered on Sky News, echoes broader industry concerns: the International Air Transport Association estimates a significant share of Europe’s aviation fuel originates fr…
Flavio Bolsonaro’s ascent in simulated match-up polls with President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has given his campaign leeway to defer the formal unveiling of an economic policy team. The senator, who has been campaigning abroad and visiting his father, ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, has signaled a platform broadly aligned with his father’s economic a…
Faced with new U.S. levies on European wines, a Brooklyn wine retailer is sourcing fine French and Italian bottles already stored in the United States and selling them through internet auctions to sidestep import tariffs. The approach reflects broader industry shifts as wineries, restaurants and merchants adapt to changing trade rules and renewed t…
The Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee says the recent Middle East conflict has produced a substantial shock to the global economy, driving large moves in energy markets and creating heightened volatility across financial markets. The committee highlighted sharp increases in oil and gas prices, significant moves in UK government bond yiel…
