Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
5,112 total articles
Citi economists anticipate the Riksbank will maintain its policy rate at 1.75% and signal an extended pause, treating the recent rise in inflation linked to energy prices as largely external and potentially temporary. With core inflation surprising to the downside, a stronger krona and fiscal measures already in play, policymakers are expected to k…
Citi economists say a fresh energy price surge tied to events in the Middle East complicates the European Central Bank's task, increasing the likelihood that policymakers will feel pressure to act if inflation trends higher. Despite hawkish rhetoric and markets pricing in tighter policy, Citi expects rates to remain around 2% through 2026 and predi…
Australia's Treasury released fresh modelling showing the ongoing Middle East conflict could push consumer prices higher and shave growth from the economy. Officials evaluated two paths for oil and commodity prices - a shorter disruption and a more protracted shock - and quantified the differing impacts on inflation and GDP.
A retreat in oil prices sparked a broad risk-on move across Asian and European markets, but attention now turns to the Federal Reserve's policy decision and updated dot plot. The meeting, along with Bank of Canada commentary and U.S. data, will shape whether markets keep pricing in rate cuts or reprice a hawkish pivot.
Federal Reserve officials are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at their upcoming meeting but will use the policy statement and updated projections to reflect how the new, open-ended conflict with Iran has altered the outlook for growth, inflation and monetary policy. Rising oil and fuel costs, supply concerns and a weaker labor pri…
The Bank of Japan is broadly expected to hold its policy rate at the March 19 meeting, but officials are likely to deliver a firmer, more hawkish outlook amid lingering inflationary pressures and recent yen depreciation. Policymakers face a trade-off between mounting signs of economic strength and near-term uncertainty over wage growth, while polit…
A powerful AI model named Hunter Alpha appeared anonymously on OpenRouter on March 11 and has prompted debate among developers about whether it is an early test for DeepSeek’s anticipated V4. The model claims a Chinese-language focus, a training cutoff of May 2025, a scale of about one trillion parameters and a context window of up to one million t…
Asian stock markets advanced after oil prices paused their recent rise, even as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed amid renewed Middle East hostilities. Investors shifted attention to a U.S. Federal Reserve policy decision and commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, while corporate earnings from chipmakers could provide additional direct…
Japan's exports increased for a sixth straight month in February, rising 4.2% year-on-year and beating the median forecast of 1.6%. Continued demand from Asia helped drive the gain, though higher oil prices related to the Middle East conflict pose a risk to the energy-import-dependent economy. Imports climbed 10.2%, leaving Japan with a surprise tr…
As annual wage negotiations wrap up this week, numerous large Japanese corporations are preparing to grant substantial pay increases for a fourth straight year. While unions and management have largely reached deals despite elevated U.S. tariffs, concerns over higher oil prices stemming from the Middle East conflict could weaken corporate profits a…
A monthly poll that tracks the Bank of Japan's tankan survey found manufacturers' sentiment climbed to its strongest level since December 2021 in March, driven by gains in chemicals, petroleum and a recovering semiconductor market. Despite the improvement, worries about the Middle East conflict, rising costs and soft demand from China temper the ne…
U.S. Postmaster General David Steiner told a House Oversight subcommittee the U.S. Postal Service could exhaust its cash as soon as October or November if it continues to meet required retirement and other government payments. Steiner urged Congress to approve higher stamp prices, expanded borrowing authority and other reforms, and outlined cost-cu…
Global equity markets rose and bond yields slipped on March 17 as Brent crude reclaimed the $100-per-barrel mark. Investors looked past the jump in oil prices to focus on an upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision and a slate of macroeconomic and central bank events due this week. Energy-related price pressures and flattening yield curves a…
German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul told a Berlin audience that a military solution to the Iran conflict is unrealistic and that engineered regime change would risk chaos harmful to Germany, the region and Iranians. Speaking at an event hosted by the ZEIT media group alongside his French counterpart, Wadephul also said now is not the time to li…
The Chilean government has directed a comprehensive spending reduction plan totaling almost $4 billion, combining a uniform 3% cut across budget items with targeted ministry savings and prior cuts announced by the previous administration. A March 13 budget office memo says the measures are intended to restore fiscal sustainability, preserve social …
President Donald Trump on Tuesday rebuked NATO for its hesitation to aid the United States in clearing the Strait of Hormuz, calling the alliance's stance "a very foolish mistake," yet he also asserted that Washington does not require outside help to escort vessels through the waterway. He added that Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia an…
U.S. officials encouraged Syria’s Sunni Islamist-led government to consider deploying forces into eastern Lebanon to assist in disarming Hezbollah, according to multiple people briefed on the discussions. Syrian authorities have weighed the plan but are cautious, citing the risk of being drawn into a wider regional conflict, possible Iranian retali…
Norges Bank Investment Management CEO Nicolai Tangen told delegates at the Euronext Annual Conference in Paris that Europe’s capital markets are fragmented and at risk, calling for harmonized rules and deeper integration to restore liquidity and competitiveness. The fund has increased its exposure to U.S. equities, driven in part by the dominance o…
Russia announced firm solidarity with Cuba on March 17, denouncing what it described as attempts at foreign interference after the U.S. president said he expected to have the honour of "taking Cuba" and declared "I can do anything I want" with the island. Moscow said it would continue providing support, including financial assistance, and signalled…
Housing analysts surveyed between Feb. 27 and March 17 expect U.S. home prices to rise only modestly this year and in 2027 as mortgage rates remain around 6% and a multi-year shortage of affordable homes endures. The panel's forecasts imply the housing sector will not provide a material lift to the slowing U.S. economy, and they show little change …
A World Bank report covering 183 countries finds that developing economies are pursuing industrial policy more intensively than wealthy states but frequently depend on sweeping tariffs and subsidies rather than targeted measures. The bank cautions that such blunt instruments can strain public finances and underperform compared with finely tuned int…
Macquarie has pulled out of a competitive process to acquire a stake in Kuwait’s oil pipeline network, citing the Iran war and an uncertain outlook, sources said. The withdrawal underscores growing investor caution in Gulf infrastructure deals after disruptions to crude exports following Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the…
The Prudential Regulation Authority has published proposals aimed at making sure banks can quickly turn liquid holdings into cash during fast-moving stress events. The reforms prioritize the practical convertibility of assets during a run rather than simply increasing the quantity of liquid assets banks must hold, the PRA said. Sam Woods, the Bank …
Cathie Wood of ARK Investment Management says artificial intelligence is already boosting labor productivity and could accelerate gains over the next decade. She noted current non-farm productivity growth of 2.8% year-over-year and said new AI tools could lift that rate toward 6% annually. Wood highlighted rapid revenue expansion at frontier AI fir…
S&P Global Ratings warns that Gulf Cooperation Council banks could see domestic deposit withdrawals as large as $307 billion under a hypothetical stress scenario if the conflict intensifies. The agency's base case models the most intense phase of hostilities lasting two to four weeks, and it found no signs of major outflows so far. Banks currently …
