Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
6,527 total articles
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 to leave the Bank Rate at 3.75%, abandoning its usual single central forecast and instead outlining three scenarios for how the Iran war could affect inflation and growth. Under the most severe outcome, protracted high energy prices could push inflation to a 6.2% peak and keep it above the 2…
Markets had anticipated a more dovish Federal Reserve under incoming Chair Kevin Warsh, but a divided policy vote, rising oil prices and stronger Treasury yields have erased near-term expectations for rate cuts. Futures markets now largely rule out reductions this year, with some participants even pricing a possible hike next year, while investors …
U.S. banks report little direct guidance from the administration on an anticipated executive order that would require collection of customers' citizenship or immigration status. Executives and compliance experts warn the move would demand extensive IT and operations changes, carry large compliance and legal risks, and could have outsized effects on…
The U.S. Department of Justice's recent move to reclassify FDA-approved cannabis medicines and state-regulated medical marijuana products to Schedule III has prompted drug developers to anticipate renewed private investment and greater access to public markets. Executives at multiple companies developing cannabis-derived therapies said the change s…
Emerging market stocks and currencies dipped as investors reacted to reports of potential new U.S. strikes on Iran and the resulting surge in oil prices. Despite the intraday weakness, major EM gauges were positioned for notable monthly gains after earlier improvements in risk appetite. Market participants also digested signals of a split Federal R…
U.S. stock index futures showed mixed movement as a sharp rise in oil prices revived inflation worries, counterbalancing broadly solid technology earnings. Brent crude climbed after reports of a planned U.S. military briefing on potential action related to Iran, while investors digested Federal Reserve commentary and awaited key economic releases.
A preliminary Eurostat flash estimate showed the euro zone's GDP expanded by just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, below forecasts and the prior quarter's 0.2% pace. The result comes as surveys point to slipping business sentiment, softer services activity, falling profits, export challenges and tighter bank credit, while the region's heavy reliance …
Euro zone annual inflation climbed to 3.0% in April from 2.6% in March, driven chiefly by higher energy prices, Eurostat data showed. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, eased to 2.2% from 2.3%. Services inflation moderated to 3.0% while non-energy industrial goods inflation rose to 0.8%. The mixed readings strengthen arguments for furt…
U.S. stock futures were largely flat as investors digested heavy-hitting corporate reports from major technology companies, a sharp rise in Brent crude after a report of possible additional U.S. military action on Iran, and a Federal Reserve decision that exposed deep divisions among policymakers. Tech giants reported record data center spending ti…
In a supplemental risk scenario published Thursday, the Bank of Japan projected core consumer price inflation near 3% for fiscal 2026 and 2027, driven by assumptions of crude oil at about $105 per barrel, a 10% weaker yen and a 20% drop in stock prices. The BOJ's baseline outlook, released earlier in the week, remains more moderate but still projec…
Morgan Stanley now anticipates the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin reducing interest rates next year, abandoning an earlier prediction for cuts in 2026. The change follows a closely split Fed decision to hold policy rates that pushed Treasury yields to a one-month high and strengthened the dollar amid continued inflation above the 2% target and res…
Colombia’s central bank is widely expected to raise its policy rate on Thursday as officials attempt to curb rising inflation, even as questions persist about the participation of the government’s representative on the board. A Reuters poll showed most economists expect a 50-basis-point hike, with others forecasting a larger move or no change.
Federal Reserve policy language and a sharp rise in oil on geopolitical tensions have prompted a notable move higher in U.S. Treasury yields, as traders abandon near-term rate cut expectations and begin to price in the chance of a rate increase by April 2027. Equity markets, led by large-cap technology names reporting broadly positive first-quarter…
Two months into the conflict that has closed the Strait of Hormuz, global markets are recalibrating to a persistent supply shock in energy that is lifting prices and raising recession risks for energy-importing economies. Brent crude has climbed to roughly $112 a barrel - more than 50% above pre-conflict levels - while forecasts and market measures…
The Federal Reserve held its policy rate steady while revealing an unusually large minority of dissenters among its voters, underscoring divisions that have emerged ahead of Kevin Warsh’s scheduled takeover as chair on May 15. Officials debated revising post-meeting guidance to make a rate hike as plausible as a cut, but the majority opted to prese…
The U.S. House on Wednesday approved a three-year budget blueprint that creates a pathway for Congress to consider an additional $70 billion in spending for immigration enforcement. The measure passed 215-211 with no Democratic support after House leadership held the roll call open for more than five hours to secure Republican votes. With the Senat…
AI-focused stocks in Asia strengthened after a series of mostly positive earnings reports, led by a strong showing from Alphabet and solid results from Microsoft and Amazon. At the same time, a sharp jump in oil prices and a more hawkish tilt among central banks pushed government bond yields higher and lifted the U.S. dollar, with the yen falling t…
China’s manufacturing activity accelerated in April to its fastest rate since late 2020, driven by stronger production and a marked increase in new orders, according to the private RatingDog PMI compiled by S&P Global. The index climbed to 52.2 from 50.8 in March, comfortably above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction and …
The U.S. dollar held near a more-than-two-week high after several Federal Reserve officials adopted a tougher stance on inflation, lifting Treasury yields to their highest levels since late March. The yen slipped past 160 per dollar, bringing intervention risks into focus as oil prices climbed amid uncertainty around the Iran conflict.
U.S. officials are urging foreign governments to join a proposed 'Maritime Freedom Construct' designed to restore safe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The initiative, outlined in an internal State Department cable cited by a report, would emphasize information-sharing, coordinated diplomatic responses, and sanctions enforcement, and could in…
The Bank of England is widely expected to leave its Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% when its Monetary Policy Committee announces its decision, as officials and markets assess whether surging energy costs from the Iran conflict will produce persistent inflation or instead deepen an economic slowdown. All economists in a Reuters poll predicted no change…
The Bank of Japan has signalled a likely rate increase at its June meeting by adopting unusually direct language about upside inflation risks, while keeping policy unchanged for now at 0.75%. The guidance assumes the Middle East conflict eases, crude prices fall and supply disruptions remain contained - an assumption that analysts say leaves the ce…
The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged but signaled that further tightening remains a possibility if the recent jump in energy-driven inflation becomes entrenched. Officials are watching for second-round effects even as services-sector cooling and slowing growth provide some relief. Markets largely expect a June rate increase if oi…
Brazil's monetary authority reduced its benchmark Selic rate by 25 basis points to 14.50% in a unanimous decision, marking a second consecutive easing move. Policymakers refrained from providing forward guidance and said future rate adjustments will depend on new information about the economic effects of the U.S.-Israel war against Iran. The bank c…
The Federal Reserve's latest policy statement drew an unusually high number of dissents, with three regional bank presidents objecting to wording that implies a bias toward future rate cuts. Their concern reflects unease at signaling easier policy while inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target and energy prices have risen. The split underscores …
