Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
6,527 total articles
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde rejected comparisons between the current euro zone economy and 1970s stagflation, saying the historical conditions do not match today’s monetary and fiscal framework. The ECB left interest rates unchanged and warned that upside inflation risks and downside growth risks have become more pronounced, w…
With financing for the U.S. Secret Service and airport security poised to lapse, House Republicans will attempt to advance legislation to restore funding for Department of Homeland Security agencies that have faced a partial shutdown for nearly 11 weeks. The House late Wednesday approved a $70 billion budget measure to fund ICE and Border Patrol, w…
President Donald Trump publicly chastised German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, telling him to concentrate on resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict and addressing domestic problems instead of involving himself in efforts aimed at the Iran nuclear threat. The remarks, posted on Truth Social, followed an earlier exchange in which Merz said Iranians were …
Australia's national dwelling values rose 0.3% in April to a record median of A$940,048, the slowest monthly increase since January last year, as sharper borrowing costs and the Middle East conflict pushed prices in Sydney and Melbourne into declines. Other capitals, including Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide, continued to post positive monthly gains, …
President Donald Trump on Thursday renewed a public call for ABC to terminate late-night host Jimmy Kimmel, posting on Truth Social that the network should move swiftly. The president's remarks followed First Lady Melania Trump's public urging that ABC remove Kimmel after a monologue he delivered prior to a shooting at a high-profile Washington din…
U.S. GDP grew at a 2.0% annualized rate in Q1 driven largely by a partial reversal in government outlays, while the Commerce Department reported PCE inflation for March in line with expectations: 3.5% year-over-year and 0.7% month-over-month, with core PCE up 0.3%. Markets reacted with equity futures higher, Treasury yields falling and the dollar r…
The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged on April 30, while President Christine Lagarde warned of growing inflationary pressures and indicated the bank expects to raise rates several times this year, with an initial move pencilled in for June. Lagarde highlighted that domestic demand and a resilient labour market are supporting growt…
Preliminary data from Mexico’s national statistics agency INEGI show the economy contracted 0.8% in the first quarter versus the prior three months, exceeding forecasts of a 0.5% decline and reversing the prior quarter's revised 0.9% expansion. All three major activity groups registered sequential contractions, while annual growth for the quarter w…
The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged as expected, while the statement highlighted mounting inflationary pressures and increased the likelihood of several rate increases this year, with markets viewing a June move as the probable first step. Euro currency and regional assets showed limited reaction, while money markets expect at l…
Initial filings for unemployment benefits in the United States fell by 26,000 to a seasonally adjusted 189,000 for the week ending April 25, reflecting continued stability in the labor market. Continuing claims also declined, and surveys suggest consumers' employment perceptions shifted only modestly in April. Economists caution that shipping disru…
Following the April Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Morgan Stanley revised its U.S. policy outlook, now forecasting that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged for the remainder of 2026 and implement two 25-basis-point cuts in January and March 2027, moving the terminal federal funds rate target to 3.0%–3.25%. The change reflects an F…
Statistics Canada reported a 0.2% increase in real GDP for February versus January, marking a fourth straight month of positive monthly growth. Strength in manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, and mining and oil and gas extraction drove the advance. An advance estimate suggests monthly GDP would be unchanged in March and …
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey described the central bank’s recent decision to keep interest rates unchanged as an "active hold" rather than passive inaction. He said the move reflects current uncertainty but cautioned that a prolonged spike in energy prices could require a higher bank rate. Bailey also warned against waiting for clear seco…
The European Central Bank left key interest rates unchanged and emphasized that the war in Iran is amplifying upside inflation pressures while weighing on economic activity. The ECB maintained its deposit rate at 2%, kept borrowing rates at weekly and daily auctions unchanged, and said prolonged conflict and elevated energy prices increase risks to…
The European Central Bank left its key deposit rate unchanged at 2%, saying recent data largely match its prior inflation outlook while warning that the conflict in the Middle East has driven energy costs higher. Officials said the scale and duration of the resulting energy shock will determine its medium-term impact on inflation and growth, and th…
International Paper reported a first-quarter revenue shortfall and trimmed its full-year adjusted earnings forecast as higher interest rates and volatile costs weighed on shipments in North America and Europe. The company said it remains committed to separating its North American packaging business from EMEA operations, but warned that energy, fuel…
Japan's yen strengthened about 3% on Thursday after Tokyo officials issued strong language that intervention to support the currency may be imminent. The dollar fell to around 155.94 yen by 1250 GMT, marking the U.S. currency's biggest daily drop since December 2022. Market participants pointed to the timing of officials' comments and trading patte…
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned that policymakers face a difficult judgement over whether and when to respond to second-round inflationary pressures stemming from higher energy costs tied to the Middle East conflict. He emphasised that these second-round effects build more slowly than initial price shocks and that waiting for conclusi…
The Bank of England paused its tightening cycle, keeping the policy rate at 3.75%, while mapping out how the war in Iran could affect UK inflation. Governor Andrew Bailey said the ultimate path for policy will hinge on the magnitude and persistence of any energy price shock and its knock-on effects for consumer prices, particularly food. He warned …
The Japanese yen strengthened sharply after Tokyo issued firm warnings that intervention to support the currency might be imminent. Dollar/yen fell to 156.72, down more than 2% on the day, sparking debate among strategists about whether verbal signals alone or active intervention - possibly combined with short-covering and low liquidity - drove the…
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 to keep Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% at its April meeting, presenting three alternative scenarios for how higher energy prices could affect inflation and output. Policymakers differed on the likely persistence and second-round effects of the shock from the Middle East conflict, with one memb…
Botswana's central bank lifted its benchmark interest rate from 3.5% to 5.5%, citing a global energy shock tied to the Iran war. Governor Lesego Moseki said the monetary policy committee expects inflation to breach the 3% to 6% target range in the second quarter and projected inflation to average 8.7% in 2026 and 5.6% in 2027.
The Japanese yen strengthened sharply on Thursday after Tokyo officials, including Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, issued unusually strong warnings that intervention to support the currency could be forthcoming. The dollar fell about 2.1% to 156.985 yen at 1106 GMT, a move that market participants flagged as consistent with possible official buy…
Turkey's central bank said uncertainty about the inflation path has climbed materially because of volatile commodity prices and supply bottlenecks. The Monetary Policy Committee's April 22 summary said the bank is watching how broader developments and domestic energy costs transmit to inflation through the cost channel and activity, and noted leadi…
Facing heightened uncertainty from the Iran war, the Bank of England abandoned a single baseline projection in its April 2026 Monetary Policy Report and set out three scenario-based outlooks. The paths differ by assumed energy-price trajectories, household spending responses and the size of second-round inflation effects, producing a range of outco…
