Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
6,551 total articles
Crude and Brent futures surged up to 5% on Monday after reports that Iran struck a U.S. naval vessel near the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran and semi-official outlets described a missile strike and stepped-up naval warnings, while a senior U.S. official denied any U.S. ship had been hit. Oil pared some gains later in the session.
Global equity funds recorded net inflows for a sixth consecutive week through April 29, driven by strong first-quarter corporate results that lifted the MSCI World Index to a record. Asian markets saw particularly large inflows, while bond funds continued to attract capital and money market funds experienced notable withdrawals.
A U.S. magistrate judge in Minnesota ruled that federal law permits the Department of Justice to appoint active-duty Judge Advocate General (JAG) attorneys to prosecute civilians for offenses unrelated to military duties, concluding that two congressional statutes create exceptions to the Posse Comitatus Act. The decision came in litigation brought…
Barclays has revised its outlook and no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates in 2026, instead projecting a single 25-basis-point cut in March 2027. The change stems from an updated oil price baseline that keeps energy-driven inflation elevated, prompting upward revisions to headline and core PCE inflation and a modest downgrade to 2026 G…
Moody’s has revised Vietnam’s sovereign outlook from stable to positive while keeping the Ba2 rating, highlighting institutional improvements tied to reforms since late 2024 and a reduced threat from U.S. trade measures. The move follows market upgrades by index providers and commentary from another ratings agency signaling robust growth prospects …
The U.S. Treasury is expected to hold coupon auction sizes steady for a ninth consecutive quarter when it publishes its quarterly financing estimates and refunding plan in early May. A potential surge in tariff refunds following a Supreme Court ruling is refocusing market attention on whether, and when, the Treasury will expand issuance of longer-d…
Global markets head into the new week with attention split between developments in the Strait of Hormuz and a slate of U.S. economic releases and central bank remarks. Washington has proposed a plan to reopen shipping lanes in the strait, while Tehran has issued stern warnings against foreign naval actions. Domestically, the April employment report…
A seasonally adjusted purchasing managers' index (PMI) sponsored by Absa climbed to 52.6 in April from 49.0 in March, signalling a return to expansion in South African manufacturing for the first time since September 2025. Business activity and new sales orders both moved back into growth, while input costs were lifted by a weaker rand and higher i…
Slovak European Central Bank policymaker Peter Kazimir told readers that a rate increase in June is 'all but inevitable' as rising energy costs spread into the wider economy. The ECB left rates unchanged recently but signaled the possibility of hikes as inflation risks move toward the 'adverse' scenario in its projections. Markets are pricing in se…
Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau told President Emmanuel Macron that the European Central Bank should wait for clear evidence inflationary pressures are becoming entrenched before raising interest rates. The ECB recently paused on rate changes but debated tightening to counter surging inflation from energy costs and signalled a p…
Barclays reiterated its forecast that the Bank of Japan will begin raising interest rates in June, on the condition that tensions in the Middle East ease. The bank sees the BoJ's latest decision as preparatory for earlier rate increases, and warns that improved geopolitical stability and clearer domestic economic signals would heighten upside infla…
U.S. stock futures traded mixed as investors digested a renewed U.S. effort to get vessels moving through the Strait of Hormuz, awaited the Treasury's quarterly financing update and monitored corporate developments including GameStop's unsolicited $56 billion bid for eBay and Berkshire Hathaway's quarterly results. Market attention is divided betwe…
The European Central Bank's quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters expects a near-term rise in euro zone inflation driven by elevated oil prices, but forecasters predict inflation will fall back to around the ECB's 2% target within a few years. The survey, reviewed at last week's rate-setting meeting, also forecasts slower economic growth thi…
Euro area factory purchasing accelerated in April as firms accumulated raw materials amid worries about supply disruptions and higher prices tied to the Middle East conflict. The headline S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.2, but measures of confidence and forward-looking sentiment fell, while input costs and selling prices climbed sh…
A European Central Bank survey of large non-financial companies indicates a clear risk that a prolonged conflict in Iran, and resulting interruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, could produce an inflation surge similar to that seen after the COVID-19 pandemic and in 2022-23. While some sectors have already enacted steep price increas…
Barclays has abandoned its earlier call for a September 2026 rate cut, joining other global brokerages that now expect no easing from the U.S. Federal Reserve this year. The bank cites prolonged higher energy prices tied to the Iran war as a driver of elevated inflation that could keep policymakers cautious. Barclays still projects a quarter-point …
European equity indices opened the week with little movement as markets digested U.S. measures to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping. Energy prices remain elevated, bond yields have advanced on inflation and policy concerns, and large investment flows into artificial intelligence continue to attract analyst attention.
A rising Green vote among urban progressives in London, exemplified in Hackney, is eroding Labour’s long-standing local dominance. As the Green Party moves left under Zack Polanski and Labour adopts tougher stances on some issues, close contests are emerging across boroughs ahead of the May 7 local elections. Polls show the Greens leading in severa…
A convergence of geopolitical and economic events - including renewed oil strength amid the Iran conflict, forthcoming U.S. payrolls, Britain's municipal elections and key central bank decisions - creates a packed week for markets. Energy-driven earnings, potential shifts in UK fiscal outlook, and a tight Reserve Bank of Australia decision round ou…
India's manufacturing sector recorded a small uptick in April, with the HSBC-S&P Global PMI rising to 54.7 from 53.9 in March, yet the reading stayed near a four-year low. Firms reported weak demand, higher raw-material and fuel costs attributed to the Middle East war, and only modest gains in production and new orders. Export orders and hiring off…
U.S. President announced 'Project Freedom' to assist roughly 900 merchant vessels trapped in the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. Central Command outlined the military assets that will support merchant transit, but operational details and the willingness of ship operators to run the strait remain unclear. Oil prices, stock futures and the dollar are only mod…
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to lift its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% at its May 5 policy meeting, marking its third increase this year. The move comes amid a rebound in inflation driven in part by higher energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict. While the hike would restore rates to late-2024 levels and reverse a brie…
South Korea's factory sector expanded at its fastest pace since February 2022 in April, according to an S&P Global purchasing managers index that rose to 53.6 from 52.6 in March. Semiconductor demand supported both production and new orders, even as disruptions to raw material supplies tied to the war in the Middle East influenced firms to increase…
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said the prolonged conflict involving Iran raises the prospect of sustained higher inflation and economic damage, complicating the Fed's ability to provide clear guidance on interest rates. Speaking on CBS's Face the Nation, Kashkari highlighted the impact of a closed Strait of Hormuz, whi…
Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said the ongoing Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz reduce the central bank’s capacity to provide clear guidance on interest-rate policy. With energy prices surging and inflation running above target, Kashkari and several regional Fed officials dissented at the most recent FOMC meeting, …
