Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
5,120 total articles
The first quarter delivered abrupt, large-scale moves across commodity, fixed income, equity and currency markets as the outbreak of war in Iran coincided with disruptive geopolitical actions earlier in January. Brent crude surged nearly 90%, European gas prices almost doubled and global interest rates have turned decisively higher, producing major…
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters that regime change has occurred in Iran and that American strikes are increasing in intensity. He said U.S. firepower is growing while Iranian capabilities are declining, described the coming days as decisive in the operation, and warned that strikes will continue and intensify unless Tehran accept…
President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social urging countries unable to secure jet fuel because of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz to either buy fuel from the United States or mount military action themselves to reopen the waterway. He said the U.S. would not help allies in such efforts and signaled a willingness to end the U.S. military campaig…
Pakistan is assessing options to make use of an Iran-granted allowance for 20 Pakistan-flagged transits through the Strait of Hormuz, including the possible re-flagging of third-party tankers, officials said. Islamabad does not currently have the fleet in the Persian Gulf to fill the quota and has not reached a final decision on the approach.
European Central Bank Governing Council member Boris Vujcic told reporters in Zagreb that the jump in inflation expectations following the outbreak of the Iran war was anticipated by the ECB. He warned that a prolonged conflict or heavier damage to energy infrastructure would add upward pressure on energy prices and, in turn, consumer inflation. EC…
The S&P 500 is set to record its steepest quarterly decline in four years as investor worries about inflation, an escalation in the Iran conflict, and uncertainty around AI-driven disruption prompt a retreat. A spike in oil prices and a reversal in long-term Treasury calm have compounded pressure on equities, while the leading megacap technology fi…
An International Monetary Fund official says almost 3 million leftover non-performing loans dating from Greece's debt crisis are stunting economic recovery by locking about 2.4 million people and many small businesses out of lending markets. Despite bank re-privatisation and the transfer of roughly 60 billion euros of bad loans to servicers, unreso…
China's central bank said Tuesday it will keep monetary policy appropriately loose while watching external developments. The People’s Bank of China described the economy as broadly stable but noted pressures from strong supply, weak demand and external shocks. It promised moderately loose policy with greater counter-cyclical adjustment, ample liqui…
Inflation-driven yield increases tied to higher energy prices have already pushed Treasury yields up. Market attention is turning to the fiscal cost of a protracted conflict - including defense supplemental requests, potential tariff refunds and possible stimulus - which could widen deficits and further unsettle bond markets that have been weak thi…
U.S. banks have raised the interest charged on some credit facilities used by private credit funds, driven by growing uncertainty over valuations of loans held in those portfolios. The increase in borrowing costs - particularly for back-leverage facilities used by business development companies (BDCs) and other private credit firms - tightens margi…
Analysts at Cornwall Insight forecast an approximate 18% increase in Britain’s domestic energy price cap in July, lifting the cap to 1,929 pounds per year for a typical household, driven by higher international gas prices after shipping disruptions and a stop to Qatari LNG exports. The estimate is slightly below a prior 20% projection. Officials ha…
Global air passenger traffic rose 6.1% in February 2026 versus February 2025, outpacing capacity expansion and pushing the load factor to a February record of 81.4%, the International Air Transport Association reported. International and domestic markets both expanded, while rising fuel costs linked to the war in the Middle East and adjustments to …
Inflation across the 21-country euro area rose to 2.5% in March from 1.9% the previous month, pushed higher by a jump in energy costs. Underlying inflation excluding food and energy edged down to 2.3%, but the rapid increase in oil and gas has prompted debate at the European Central Bank over whether to tighten policy to prevent second-round effect…
The European Central Bank published a model that transforms infrequent survey responses into monthly inflation expectation series for horizons up to ten years, stretching back to 1999. The analysis finds professional forecasters initially underestimated the magnitude and persistence of the 2021-22 inflation spike, only revising their 12-month outlo…
The European Central Bank outlined modeling work intended to generate a more continuous picture of inflation expectations, addressing limitations in survey frequency and market-based measures. The models interpolate sparse survey forecasts into a monthly curve and separately strip risk premia from market signals to produce a 'clean' expectations se…
Ye Win Oo, a 60-year-old general who led the squad that detained Aung San Suu Kyi during the February 1, 2021 coup, was named commander-in-chief of Myanmar's military on Monday. His promotion marks the first time a former head of military intelligence has risen to the top post. Analysts, diplomats and a defector point to his loyalty and proximity t…
U.S. stock futures rose as the first quarter neared its close, supported by reports that President Trump is weighing an end to the Iran military campaign without reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices remained historically high after a Kuwaiti tanker near Dubai caught fire following an alleged Iranian attack. Investors awaited U.S. JOLTS job op…
South Korean equities suffered heavy losses as the KOSPI plunged 4.3% on Tuesday, bringing its fall since late February to 19.9%. The won weakened about 1% to trade below 1,500 against the dollar. Large foreign sell-offs and a rapid unwind of positions, amid rising energy prices and reduced risk appetite tied to the Middle East war, underpinned the…
Germany's seasonally adjusted unemployment count remained unchanged in March at 2.977 million, with the jobless rate sticking at 6.3%. Labour office chief Andrea Nahles said the usual spring improvement in employment has begun but without strong momentum. Job vacancies totalled 638,000, down 5,000 year-on-year. Broader economic strains including co…
A consortium of Germany's leading economic research institutes has reduced its growth projection for 2026 to 0.6%, down from a 1.3% estimate issued in September, and trimmed 2027 expectations to 0.9% from 1.4%. The institutes attribute the downgrade to rising energy costs tied to the Iran war, which they say are driving higher inflation. The group …
Global markets edged up on Tuesday after a report that the U.S. may halt direct military operations against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Futures rallied in Asia and Europe, while oil retreated from intraday gains. Investors remain cautious: the waterway has been effectively shut since February 28 and Brent is set for a …
Japanese officials on Tuesday described the latest slide in the yen as speculative for the first time since the Middle East war began, signaling readiness to act as the currency neared the 160-per-dollar threshold. The slump has combined with a spike in oil prices after the Iran conflict and rising import costs to intensify inflationary pressure an…
A People’s Bank of China monetary policy committee member said imported inflation linked to the Middle East conflict could squeeze corporate profits and complicate policymakers' efforts to simultaneously contain price pressures and support growth. Consumer inflation is still modest but the eventual impact depends on the duration and severity of the…
On March 30, California Governor Gavin Newsom issued an executive order obliging companies that pursue state contracts to adopt measures guarding against AI misuse, including producing illegal content, introducing harmful bias, or violating civil rights. The order mandates watermarking of AI-generated images and video per state guidance, directs st…
Bank Negara Malaysia has modestly lifted its economic growth projection for 2026 to a range of 4%-5%, up from 4%-4.5%, citing resilient domestic demand, a solid financial sector and external buffers. The central bank warned that higher oil prices and ongoing trade disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict and U.S. tariff actions pose risks to gr…
