Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
5,125 total articles
Saudi Arabia's non-oil private sector recorded its first contraction in nearly six years in March, driven by a sharp fall in new orders and a collapse in export activity linked to an ongoing regional maritime blockade. The Riyad Bank PMI tumbled to 48.8 from 56.1 in February, while the 12-month business outlook slid to its weakest since June 2020. …
A Deutsche Bank research note argues that a major global energy price shock presents a "non-linear" threat to the United Kingdom, increasing the chances of a rapid economic contraction. The bank has cut its UK GDP growth forecast to between 0.7% and 0.35% and highlights the fragile starting point of the economy after a near 1 percentage point rise …
President Trump's declaration of overwhelming military control is at odds with developments on the ground after Iranian forces shot down two U.S. warplanes. The incident, coming amid a 48-hour ultimatum over the Strait of Hormuz and after five weeks of bombardment, underscores Iran's ability to wage an asymmetric, sustained campaign. Markets are re…
Planet Labs PBC will indefinitely suspend the public release of satellite imagery covering Iran and the wider Middle Eastern conflict area following a U.S. government request for commercial providers to withhold data. The policy expands a prior 14-day delay, freezes imagery back to March 9, and moves the company to a managed, case-by-case distribut…
BCA Research's latest quarterly outlook argues that the ongoing energy disruption emanating from the Middle East is becoming a more significant constraint on markets than inflation. The firm warns that current market stability rests on temporary measures and that, if supply disruptions last into mid-April, investors should expect a rapid re-pricing…
An Iranian drone strike early Sunday ignited a fire at the Kuwait Petroleum Corp. headquarters in Kuwait City, a building that also houses Kuwait's Ministry of Oil. The site was evacuated and emergency teams fought the blaze as officials assess damage. The strike follows recent aerial attacks on refineries and the nation's main international airpor…
Private comments from President Trump and recent restrictions by European governments on U.S. military access have intensified a rift over the U.S.-led campaign in Iran. The dispute is pushing debate beyond diplomacy to operational limits, with analysts warning that doubts about U.S. commitment could erode NATO’s deterrent credibility and impose la…
A Bank of America Global Research note reports oil and refined products transiting the Strait of Hormuz have plunged from about 20 million barrels per day to below 2 mb/d. BofA says sustained disruption could produce a 4 mb/d supply deficit in Q2 2026, push Brent averages higher and force demand rationing as inventories in consuming nations are dra…
Goldman Sachs assesses that China is comparatively well placed to absorb the economic effects of the recent oil shock driven by Middle East tensions. Key buffers include a lower reliance on oil and gas within primary energy use, a rising share of nuclear and renewables in electricity generation, substantial reserves of crude oil, and a widened set …
The administration has asked the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia to allow construction on a planned White House ballroom to resume, arguing that a recent judicial halt exposes the presidential residence to security vulnerabilities. The filing follows a federal judge's order to pause the $400 million project while a preservation g…
The Trump administration has filed an emergency motion with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia asking that a federal judge's order pausing construction on a planned White House ballroom be set aside. The motion says the stoppage creates security vulnerabilities for the White House, the President, his family and staff. The disput…
Bank of America analysts warn that the conflict involving Iran is evolving into a broader energy shock rather than a narrowly focused oil supply event. While crude prices have risen amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions, the bank highlights increasing vulnerability across natural gas, refined products and key industrial commodities such as fertilizers.…
UBS warns that credit markets remain relatively complacent and are not fully pricing in a potential growth shock tied to geopolitical tensions and oil market disruptions. The bank identifies spread levels at which investment-grade and high-yield bonds in the U.S. and Europe become more attractive, and it recommends a neutral stance on credit while …
Morgan Stanley continues to expect the Federal Reserve to begin easing monetary policy in the second half of 2026, even after a recent jump in inflation tied to higher oil prices. The bank argues that long-run inflation expectations have held steady and that much of the short-term rise is driven by temporary energy effects, while broader financial …
Senior officials say the president is weighing a broader reorganization of his cabinet as pressure mounts from an ongoing five-week conflict with Iran. The move follows the recent removal of the attorney general and comes amid domestic fallout - higher gasoline prices, weakening approval numbers and unease among Republicans ahead of November's midt…
Five EU finance ministers from Germany, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Austria have jointly asked the European Commission to design a bloc-wide windfall profits tax on energy companies to address market distortions following a sharp gas price surge. The ministers cited a 'price shock' linked to U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran beginning February 28 and urg…
The French government will make available loans of up to €50,000 through Bpifrance to small businesses in sectors with high fuel use. The 36-month loans carry a 3.8% interest rate, require no borrower guarantees and are aimed at firms spending at least 5% of revenue on fuel. Applications open April 13 via an online platform.
Barclays' equity research finds that recent airstrikes on two major Iranian steel plants have disrupted local output but are unlikely to cause a large immediate shock to global steel supply. With national utilisation already under 50% and the affected plants accounting for under 20% of Iran's capacity, production could shift domestically. The repor…
The International Monetary Fund has endorsed a measured path of interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan, saying monetary withdrawal should proceed gradually and be guided by incoming data. The endorsement comes amid heightened risks from a six-week conflict in Iran, rising energy costs, and a weakening yen that is pushing toward the 160-per-do…
The International Monetary Fund has advised the Bank of Japan to persist with measured interest rate increases even as the conflict in the Middle East introduces fresh risks to Japan's economic outlook. The IMF highlighted balanced risks to growth and inflation, endorsed the BOJ's withdrawal of extraordinary stimulus, and recommended that further h…
A coordinated series of Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on Saturday targeted maritime and industrial infrastructure in southern Russia, breaching air defenses in the Rostov and Samara regions. The incidents included an attack on a foreign-flagged commercial vessel in the Sea of Azov and large fires near major chemical producers in Togliatti. Au…
Nomura's latest Policy Watch finds the Federal Reserve likely to defer its expected shift toward monetary easing. The firm moved its projection for the initial rate cut from June to September 2026 and now anticipates only two cuts this year, with the second arriving in December. The revision reflects renewed inflation risks tied to the Iran conflic…
A widening rift has surfaced between Washington and its European partners over a proposed multinational military effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. European officials and naval specialists argue that a strictly military approach is unrealistic given Iran's layered coastal defenses and asymmetric tactics, and that diplomacy and legal measures wi…
U.S. authorities have handed a Chinese national suspected of drug smuggling back to Beijing, a rare example of bilateral law-enforcement cooperation. The case, involving an individual identified by the surname Han, comes as Washington and Beijing seek to lock in a period of calmer relations before a planned leaders' summit in mid-May. Officials poi…
Vietnam’s economic growth moderated in the first quarter of 2026 as disruptions linked to a six-week conflict in the Middle East raised fuel prices, lifted inflation and flipped the country’s trade position to a deficit. GDP rose 7.83% year-on-year, down from 8.46% in Q4 2025, while imports outpaced exports and consumer prices climbed. Policymakers…
