Economy September 1, 2026 12:04 PM

Bank of Israel Signals Path to Further Rate Reductions if Inflation Holds Steady

Deputy governor cites low July inflation and a stronger shekel as rationale for another quarter-point cut that took the benchmark to 3.25%

By Leila Farooq
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The Bank of Israel indicated it may continue lowering short-term interest rates so long as inflation remains subdued and the economy responds benignly to a third straight reduction. Deputy Governor Andrew Abir identified July's 1.5% inflation - below the midpoint of the government's 1% to 3% target range - and the shekel's appreciation versus the dollar as key factors behind the recent quarter-point cut to a nearly four-year low of 3.25%. Abir said there was no compelling reason to halt the rate-reduction process following the decision.

Bank of Israel Signals Path to Further Rate Reductions if Inflation Holds Steady
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Key Points

  • The Bank of Israel may continue to lower short-term interest rates if inflation remains stable and the economy responds well to a third consecutive cut; this directly impacts monetary conditions and borrowing costs.
  • July's inflation rate was 1.5%, below the midpoint of the government's 1% to 3% annual target, and was cited as the principal justification for the quarter-point reduction.
  • A stronger shekel versus the dollar has been identified as a contributing factor to declining inflation, highlighting the role of exchange-rate movements in domestic price dynamics.

The Bank of Israel left open the possibility of further easing of short-term interest rates provided price pressures continue to be contained and the economy reacts appropriately to a third successive cut, Deputy Governor Andrew Abir said on Tuesday.

Abir told Reuters that the central bank's most recent quarter-point reduction was driven principally by a low inflation print of 1.5% in July. That figure sits below the midpoint of the government’s annual inflation target range of 1% to 3%, the deputy governor said, and helped justify trimming the benchmark rate to 3.25% - its lowest level in nearly four years.

He also noted the contribution of the shekel's strength against the dollar to the downward pressure on prices. In Abir's assessment, Israel's inflation trajectory was moving lower even as many other countries continue to see higher price growth.

Reflecting the central bank's posture after the vote, Abir said: "We didn’t really see a compelling reason not to continue with the process of reducing interest rates." The comment followed the decision to implement a third consecutive reduction in the policy rate.


Context and implications

The statements emphasize two proximate drivers cited by officials for the recent easing: the July inflation reading of 1.5% relative to the government's 1% to 3% target band, and exchange-rate dynamics tied to a stronger shekel. The Bank of Israel's willingness to continue the reduction process appears conditional on both the stability of price pressures and observable economic responses to the latest cut.

While the central bank has made a policy move by lowering the benchmark rate to 3.25%, Abir's remarks underline that further action will depend on incoming data and economic developments rather than a preset path.


Summary of the decision

  • The Bank of Israel implemented a quarter-point cut that reduced the policy rate to 3.25%.
  • July inflation registered at 1.5%, below the midpoint of the government's 1% to 3% target.
  • Officials noted the role of a stronger shekel against the dollar in helping to lower inflation.

Risks

  • The central bank's ability to continue reducing rates depends on inflation remaining subdued; a reversal in price pressures would limit further easing - this uncertainty affects interest-sensitive sectors such as housing and corporate borrowing.
  • The monetary path is conditional on how the economy reacts to a third straight rate cut; if the economic response is weaker or stronger than anticipated, policymakers may need to reassess - this creates uncertainty for financial markets and lenders.
  • Inflation's recent decline has been aided by the shekel's strength against the dollar, meaning that shifts in exchange-rate trends could alter the inflation outlook and thus influence future policy decisions - this presents risks for exporters and import-dependent sectors.

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