Foreign exchange markets and global currency movements.
Coverage of currency markets including major pairs, central bank actions, interest-rate differentials, and geopolitical influences. This section highlights trends in FX markets that impact global trade, inflation, and cross-asset correlations.
846 total articles
BCA Research trimmed its short-term outlook for the U.S. dollar, pointing to a rally that it considers overextended after recent Federal Reserve repricing, heavier long positioning, softer oil prices and less supportive seasonal patterns. The firm advised closing tactical long USD positions, warned that USD/JPY sits near levels that increase the ri…
Eurozone government bond yields settled at three-month lows on Friday as weaker growth signals and a cooling of energy markets prompted investors to scale back expectations for aggressive European Central Bank rate hikes. Germany's 10-year yield hovered around 2.84%, while the two-year yield eased to 2.511%, reflecting an increasingly cautious pric…
Asian currencies traded in narrow ranges as the U.S. dollar paused following a strong weekly advance. The Japanese yen remained near a 40-year low with traders cautious about extending positions amid intervention concerns. Tokyo's June inflation data showed persistent underlying price pressures, while other regional currencies saw mixed moves led b…
Barclays expects the Russian ruble to depreciate through its forecast horizon, attributing the outlook to a firmer U.S. dollar, declining oil prices that reduce export revenues, and planned fiscal rule measures that route excess oil proceeds into hard currency and the National Wealth Fund. The bank highlights both external pressures and a domestic …
Barclays attributes the recent weakness in the Chilean peso to a combination of fading enthusiasm around artificial intelligence demand and Chile's role as a net oil importer, which has worsened the country's current account in recent months. Disappointing copper production has reduced export receipts, while low carry against a backdrop of U.S. hig…
Barclays says the victory of right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella in Colombia's presidential second round points to a more market-oriented administration, supporting the Colombian peso. The bank views the result as mostly reflected in current prices, but notes potential for continued near-term momentum if early policy signals indicate will…
Barclays has revised its year-end forecast for the Peruvian sol to 3.30 per U.S. dollar, citing preliminary presidential runoff returns that indicate a likely win for right-wing candidate Keiko Fujimori and the country’s robust external position, boosted by high copper prices and a large trade surplus. The bank says market pricing and central bank …
Barclays expects the Czech koruna to stay largely unchanged against the euro while outperforming the Polish zloty over its forecast horizon. The bank attributes this outlook to the Czech National Bank’s firmly hawkish policy stance, inflows into domestic bond markets and the repatriation of returns from the central bank’s foreign exchange reserves.
The South African rand gained about 0.7% to trade at 16.45 per dollar after U.S. personal consumption expenditures inflation largely matched expectations, easing pressure on the dollar. Domestic producer inflation accelerated to 7.8% year-on-year in May, exceeding economist forecasts of 6.7% and rising sharply from April's 4.8%, but markets appeare…
Bank of America has adjusted its G10 foreign-exchange projections for the second half of 2026, cutting its euro-dollar targets and adopting a more constructive near-term view on the U.S. dollar. The bank cites stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data, hawkish messaging from the Federal Reserve, and developments in U.S.-Iran relations as key influe…
Sterling and the euro steadied on Thursday after risk sentiment improved and equity markets calmed, but a stronger-than-expected US inflation report kept the dollar supported. Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and headline inflation surprised on the upside, while robust US income and spending data reduced the scope for a dovish Federal R…
Analysts at Citigroup say Japanese authorities are likely to avoid further foreign-exchange intervention unless the yen weakens into the ¥160–¥162 range versus the dollar. Any intervention, Citi believes, would seek to move the pair back to roughly ¥155–¥157, while a decline below ¥155 would be necessary to more effectively counter long-term dollar…
Eurozone government bond yields paused on Thursday, with Germany's 10-year yield steady at 2.872% and two-year yields unchanged at 2.56%, after a fall in Brent crude below $73 a barrel and disappointing PMI readings reduced the perceived need for further ECB rate aggression. The combination of lower energy-driven inflation risks and signs of contra…
Most Asian currencies climbed modestly on Thursday as the U.S. dollar retreated slightly from a near seven-month high, allowing regional units to recoup some losses. The Indian rupee and Malaysian ringgit were among the better performers, while a softening dollar supported gains across several emerging Asian currencies. Australia’s headline jobs re…
Barclays expects the Brazilian real to firm in the immediate term, supported by favorable external balances and elevated real interest rates relative to other emerging markets. The bank says global developments will dictate the currency path until mid-August, after which attention will move to Brazil's presidential election in October, a period whe…
Barclays projects the Taiwan dollar will stay relatively stable in the near term, trading around the 31-32 range against the U.S. dollar. The bank cites ongoing strength in Taiwan's technology exports, a rising current account surplus and the Central Bank of China's willingness to intervene in foreign exchange markets as key supports for the curren…
Barclays expects the Thai baht to trade in a narrow 32.00-33.00 band versus the U.S. dollar through the end of the year. While short-term dollar weakness may lift Asian cyclical currencies, structural pressures - including softer tourism, higher energy import costs and a smaller current account surplus - limit upside for the baht. The Bank of Thail…
Barclays anticipates the Singapore dollar's nominal effective exchange rate (SGD NEER) will remain on the stronger side of the Monetary Authority of Singapore's policy band in the short term, bolstered by a softer US dollar, a broader dollar risk premium story and foreign capital inflows. The firm highlights that additional sustained gains would de…
Barclays expects the Philippine peso’s recent rally against the U.S. dollar after the Iran-U.S. agreement to be temporary, with limited upside beyond the immediate term. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas appears to have defended the currency near the 61.75 level, and new guidance on non-deliverable forwards has provided short-term support. Wider macr…
Barclays expects a modest recovery in the Swedish krona after recent economic data signalled a pickup in growth momentum. The bank links the currency's improvement to the prospect of policy tightening by the Riksbank if growth continues to accelerate, while acknowledging that an energy shock and temporary fiscal measures cloud near-term inflation r…
Barclays sees the euro-Norwegian krone exchange rate consolidating around 11.25 in the near term, with a later modest rebound toward 11.00. The bank says earlier positioning tailwinds have waned, energy prices are becoming a headwind for the krone, and policy is now relatively more supportive for the currency as Norges Bank tightens further. The fo…
Barclays expects the Chinese yuan to continue appreciating against the U.S. dollar over the coming months, but at a reduced pace compared with the roughly 6% rise seen over the past year. The bank attributes the moderation to ongoing pushback from the People’s Bank of China via daily fixings, signs of weaker domestic activity and potential slowing …
Barclays forecasts the USD/HKD pair will remain capped and does not expect a sustained break above 7.84 in the coming weeks. While SOFR has climbed relative to HIBOR recently and carry-demand has supported long USD/HKD positions, mid-year dividend flows and potential Hong Kong rate support could limit further widening of the U.S.-Hong Kong rate gap…
Barclays believes recent Reserve Bank of India measures have removed the worst-case tail risks for the rupee. The bank estimates possible FCNR inflows of $35 billion to $50 billion and additional ECB and FAR bond inflows of $15 billion to $20 billion, which together could push total inflows well above $70 billion, offsetting current external pressu…
Barclays expects the Indonesian rupiah to find stability in the near term following a period of weakness driven by one-way sentiment, seasonal headwinds in the second quarter and a stronger U.S. dollar since the Middle East conflict. The bank highlights Bank Indonesia's 100 basis points of additional tightening and other measures to reduce hedging …
