Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade are expected to open 6 to 8 cents per bushel lower on Wednesday when electronic trading resumes at 8:30 a.m. CDT. The pullback comes after the contract climbed to its highest point since February 2023 before retreating.
The advance in prices earlier was linked to interruptions in Russian and Ukrainian grain shipments from the Black Sea, as attacks in the region have heightened concerns about flows of agricultural commodities.
Ukraine's agriculture ministry reported that the country's grain exports fell by about 58% in August compared with the same month a year earlier. That decline in outbound volumes has been one of the factors underpinning the recent strength in prices.
Statements from regional officials have added to the market narrative. Turkey's president said a mechanism is necessary to permanently guarantee the safety of commercial maritime traffic in the Black Sea. At the same time, Russia's foreign minister has said he sees no grounds to restore the deal that previously allowed safe passage for Ukrainian grain via the Black Sea.
Separately, Russia announced it would suspend export duties on grain until the end of 2026. Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter, and that policy change represents a notable shift in its trade stance.
On the board, CBOT December soft red winter wheat was last quoted down 6-3/4 cents at $7.75-3/4 per bushel after having set contract highs earlier in the session and then retreating.
Context and market movement
The combination of disrupted Black Sea export routes, a sharp year-on-year drop in Ukrainian shipments for August, and divergent statements from regional authorities has contributed to volatility in wheat futures. Prices reached contract highs before giving back some gains ahead of Wednesday's reopening of trade.
Implications
Market participants are monitoring export flows, regional security developments, and policy statements closely as they assess near-term price direction. The information available points to elevated uncertainty around shipments from the Black Sea and a market reaction that has ranged from strong rallies to short-term pullbacks.