Commodities October 26, 2026 04:24 PM

US Drivers Face Largest Burden from Fuel Price Spike Linked to Iran War, Study Finds

Finland-based CREA analysis shows American consumers bore the biggest share of higher fuel costs amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions

By Jordan Park
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A study by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) finds U.S. consumers have paid more than any other country for the rise in fuel prices tied to supply disruptions from the war on Iran. The analysis quantifies the added costs since the conflict began and points to transport patterns and slow electric vehicle uptake as key reasons for the disproportionate impact on U.S. households.

US Drivers Face Largest Burden from Fuel Price Spike Linked to Iran War, Study Finds
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Key Points

  • CREA study estimates U.S. consumers paid an average of $471 more for fuel since the Iran war began on February 28, compared with about $60 globally.
  • Global additional fuel expenditure from the conflict totals $468 billion from March to mid-October; the U.S. share is $160 billion, China $54 billion and Canada $17 billion.
  • Structural factors - higher dependence on less efficient private vehicles, longer travel distances, and a slower shift to electric vehicles - help explain why U.S. consumers were hit hardest.

A Finland-based nonprofit research group has concluded that U.S. consumers have shouldered the heaviest financial burden from the jump in fuel costs caused by supply disruptions connected to the U.S. war on Iran. The study, published by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), attributes part of the disruption to actions that included the virtual shutting and subsequent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

According to CREA, the average U.S. consumer has paid an extra $471 for fuel since the Iran war began on February 28. By contrast, people around the world paid an average of roughly $60 more over the same period, the study reports.

CREA calculated these additional costs by comparing fuel prices in January and February of this year with prices prevailing during the remainder of the year. The analysis covered fuel price movements and consumption across 169 countries from the beginning of March through mid-October.

The study highlights specific factors that make U.S. drivers more exposed to higher fuel prices: greater reliance on less fuel-efficient private vehicles, longer average travel distances, and a relatively slow transition to electric vehicles. CREA notes these structural characteristics increase consumer vulnerability to spikes in global fuel costs.

Country-level totals from the study show the world paid an extra $468 billion for fuel over the examined period. The United States accounted for $160 billion of that total, followed by China at $54 billion and Canada at $17 billion. CREA also identified Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Belgium as countries where consumers have paid notably higher amounts.

The report reiterates CREA’s organizational stance in support of efforts to move away from fossil fuels. Separately, the U.S. administration has framed higher fuel prices as a limited consumer cost incurred to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, and has said oil and fuel prices will decline when the war concludes. The administration’s earlier expectations on the conflict’s duration have been proven optimistic, as the war has persisted longer than initially predicted.


Methodology note - CREA’s totals derive from comparing baseline fuel prices in the January-February period with subsequent months, applied across country-level consumption data for the March to mid-October interval. The group’s analysis covers 169 countries, producing aggregate and country-specific additional fuel expenditures attributed to the war-related supply disruptions.

Risks

  • Prolonged duration of the Iran war - The conflict has lasted longer than the U.S. administration initially predicted, which creates uncertainty about how long elevated fuel prices may persist. A longer war would continue to affect consumers and energy markets.
  • Structural transport and adoption patterns - Reliance on fuel-inefficient private vehicles and a slow transition to electric vehicles increase exposure of households and the automotive sector to future fuel price shocks.

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