OPEC+ members have reached an in-principle accord to maintain their December oil production targets, according to three people familiar with the matter. The proposed decision is expected to be discussed at an online meeting scheduled for Sunday that will include seven principal members - Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman.
The agreement comes as Gulf producers continue efforts to restore exports that have been disrupted for months by the war involving Iran. Despite those efforts, most members are still producing below the levels assigned to them under current targets, reflecting ongoing logistical and operational challenges in moving barrels to market.
In September, OPEC+ completed the phased rollback of a production cut that totalled 1.65 million barrels per day - a reduction that had been agreed in 2023. At the same time, the group continues to implement a separate layer of output curbs amounting to roughly 2 million barrels per day. Those additional cuts cover most members and are scheduled to remain in place through the end of 2026.
Looking beyond the near term, the alliance is preparing to shift its attention toward negotiations over production quotas for 2027. The group is expected to carry out a review of members' production capacity during the fourth quarter before establishing new baselines. Those baselines will determine future output quotas and will frame any plans to unwind the remaining cuts.
Earlier reporting in July indicated that OPEC+ was likely to keep its production targets unchanged through the fourth quarter as it concentrated on the 2027 quota discussions. If members proceed with the December standstill, the outcome would preserve the group's existing production policy while deliberations continue on next year's baselines and quota framework.
Context and implications
The expected decision to hold December targets steady effectively maintains the status quo on aggregate supply settings among the alliance. That continuity endures even as the group balances two parallel processes: operational efforts to restore disrupted exports and a technical review of capacity that will inform a reset of quotas for 2027.
The situation highlights a dual challenge for members - addressing near-term export and delivery constraints while negotiating medium-term production baselines. Both tracks will influence how and when the alliance unwinds the remaining output reductions now scheduled into late 2026.
What remains uncertain
- How quickly Gulf producers can restore disrupted export flows given the ongoing war involving Iran.
- Whether members will return to their assigned production levels given current output remains below targets.
- The outcomes of the fourth-quarter capacity review and the subsequent 2027 baseline negotiations, which will determine future quota allocations and the timetable for unwinding remaining cuts.