Asia's liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are forecast to rise to a three-month peak in October, reaching 23.31 million metric tons, according to data from commodity analyst Kpler cited by Reuters. That projected total is the highest monthly arrival since July's 23.38 million tons and represents the region's second-strongest monthly tally since the Middle East conflict began on February 28, when the US and Israel attacked Iran.
The conflict has had a direct impact on regional shipments by effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz. That closure has curtailed Qatar's ability to ship most cargoes to buyers in Asia and Europe. Qatar, which accounts for about 19% of global LNG market share and is the world's second-largest exporter, has therefore been limited in supplying its usual volumes.
China is a key driver of the expected October increase. Kpler projects Chinese arrivals at 5.47 million tons for October, up from 5.20 million in September. That projected monthly total would be the third-strongest month for China in 2026. The increase in Chinese deliveries suggests that demand ahead of the northern winter is outweighing concerns about the recent jump in prices.
Spot LNG prices have climbed sharply. For delivery to north Asia, spot LNG reached $29.30 per million British thermal units in the week to October 16, the highest level since December 2023 and almost triple the $10.40 per MMBtu recorded in late February before the Iran conflict began. Those elevated prices had earlier reduced Chinese LNG demand to the extent that Japan was likely to reclaim the position of the world's largest LNG importer for the year.
The current situation reflects a market responding to simultaneous supply disruptions and rising seasonal demand. The October forecasted volumes, led by stronger Chinese arrivals, indicate a regional pivot back toward higher procurement even as spot prices remain elevated and certain exporters face shipping constraints.
Contextual snapshot
- October Asia LNG arrivals forecast: 23.31 million metric tons.
- July comparison: 23.38 million metric tons - the last higher monthly total.
- China projected arrivals for October: 5.47 million tons, up from 5.20 million in September.
- Spot LNG price to north Asia (week to Oct 16): $29.30 per MMBtu; late February level before the Iran conflict: $10.40 per MMBtu.