Stock Markets April 16, 2026 06:03 AM

Goldman: Hedge Funds Poised for Strongest Monthly Gain Since 2016

Long-short equity managers lead the charge as industry rebounds from March turmoil tied to the Iran conflict

By Marcus Reed
Goldman: Hedge Funds Poised for Strongest Monthly Gain Since 2016

Goldman Sachs reports that hedge funds are positioned to record their best monthly returns since it began tracking data in early 2016, led by long-short equity strategies and Asia- and China-focused managers. The sector recovered from a March downturn linked to the Iran war and posted positive average returns for the quarter, with notable dispersion between top and bottom performers.

Key Points

  • Long-short equity managers rose 7.7% so far this month, the best monthly return since Goldman began tracking in early 2016.
  • Year-to-date gains for long and short equity funds are about 6.7%, led by Asia- and China-focused managers; market-neutral, healthcare, and Asia-focused strategies showed sizable quarterly alpha.
  • Funds averaged a 1.6% gain in Q1 after a 1.8% decline in March; inflows into equity long-short funds were the largest since 2022, while dispersion of individual fund returns reached a three-year high.

Hedge funds appear set to log their most robust monthly performance in more than a decade, according to the latest quarterly industry review from Goldman Sachs. The firm says managers have largely recovered from the market disruption in March tied to the Iran war that pushed returns downward.

Goldman highlights that equity stockpickers employing both long and short positions have risen 7.7% through Tuesday's close this month, marking the best monthly showing since the bank began maintaining the series in early 2016. Year-to-date, those long-short equity strategies have produced gains of roughly 6.7%, with managers focused on Asia and China delivering particularly strong results.

The report reiterates the basic mechanics of directional positions: a short position generates profit when an asset's value falls, while a long position benefits from rising prices.

Across the industry, funds averaged a 1.6% gain during the first quarter, reversing a 1.8% decline in March when macro-oriented traders suffered broad losses amid the market upheaval. Despite that pullback, the March quarter saw equity long-short funds attract the largest inflows since 2022, a development Goldman links to improved investor sentiment and continued backing from allocators and limited partners.

In March, hedge fund losses amounted to 35% of the losses recorded by a conventional 60% equity, 40% bond portfolio, a relatively low share compared with industry benchmarks. At the same time, return dispersion across individual hedge funds widened to its highest level in three years, illustrating a widening performance gap among managers as volatility rose.

Goldman's breakdown of strategy-level performance during the quarter shows several areas of concentrated outperformance. Market-neutral funds posted a 10.3% gain. Funds with a healthcare focus advanced 33.6%. Asia-focused strategies were up 28.1%. Goldman characterizes these as alpha returns - profits attributed to trading skill rather than broad market moves.


These results underscore a mixed but improving environment for hedge fund managers: strong recent month-to-date returns and quarter-level inflows, offset by significant variation among individual funds and the earlier hit in March tied to geopolitical-driven market stress.

Risks

  • Geopolitical-driven volatility - The March downturn linked to the Iran war demonstrates how geopolitical events can trigger market turmoil and losses for macro traders and other strategies.
  • Performance dispersion - Rising dispersion in returns increases the risk that individual investors may select underperforming managers even as the aggregate industry posts gains.
  • Concentration risk in regional and sector bets - Strong gains concentrated in Asia- and China-focused funds and healthcare strategies suggest that exposure to specific regions or sectors could amplify both returns and downside in volatile markets.

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