Wall Street brokerage analysts moved up their valuations on ASML following the Dutch equipment maker’s unexpectedly robust first-quarter performance and a materially revised outlook for fiscal 2026.
Both UBS and Deutsche Bank lifted their price targets to c1,600 from c1,500 and reiterated Buy-rated recommendations as they digested ASML’s updated guidance and customer demand signals.
ASML increased its fiscal 2026 revenue growth guidance to a range of 10-22% year-on-year, up from a prior forecast of 4-19%. The company attributed the stronger outlook to higher-than-projected demand for immersion lithography systems from advanced logic and memory chipmakers.
Following the guidance revision, UBS adjusted its earnings-per-share model. The bank raised its 2026-2028 EPS estimates by 3-5% and now sees its 2027 EPS projection sitting 10-15% above consensus estimates.
A central element of investor attention has been ASML’s capacity rollout for its low numerical aperture (low-NA) extreme ultraviolet (EUV) tools. ASML said it plans to ship at least 60 low-NA EUV units in 2026 and at least 80 units in 2027.
"confidence in the strong growth story."
Deutsche Bank analyst Robert Sanders emphasized the significance of the 2027 shipment target, saying it provided investors with reassurance about the company’s growth trajectory. He added: "The key question from here is whether a further wave of orders could lead to ASML raising this view on 2027 to 90 units at the Q2 results, or whether a number higher than 80 units could be capped by clean room constraints and a lack of pedestals."
UBS is slightly more conservative on unit count for 2027, forecasting 75 low-NA EUV shipments. The bank noted that some investor assumptions about unit volumes could be moderated by expected gains in tool throughput from the next-generation EUV F platform due to launch in 2027. That new F platform is projected to deliver roughly 13-18% higher throughput than the current E model and more than 50% higher throughput than the D model, reaching above 260 wafers per hour.
On regional exposure, UBS now anticipates a steeper decline in ASML revenues from China in 2026. The bank updated its estimate to a 10% year-on-year decline versus an earlier forecast of -1%, reasoning that ASML will prioritize advanced logic and memory customers as immersion capacity remains constrained.
Looking past 2027, analysts highlighted High NA EUV systems as a potential medium-term catalyst. Orders for High NA machines would need to be placed in the second half of 2026 to allow installation by 2028 for high-volume manufacturing.
"Looking forward, we identify several drivers supporting multi-year growth in low NA EUV/DUV, stemming from capacity expansions in advanced logic and HBM, as well as initial high NA orders anticipated in 2H26, with potential updates as early as next week at TSMCs symposium," analysts including Francois-Xavier Bouvignies wrote.
The combination of upgraded revenue guidance, explicit low-NA shipment targets and the timing implications for High NA orders led analysts at UBS and Deutsche Bank to raise price targets and reaffirm conviction in ASMLs market position within the lithography segment.
Contextual note - The companys updated guidance and unit plans feed directly into models for equipment supply, wafer fab throughput and near-term capex timing for advanced logic, memory and HBM customers.