Piper Sandler's recent note, referencing SEMRush traffic metrics, finds that Google's Gemini continues to expand its footprint among AI model users even as it remains behind ChatGPT on total unique visitors. In March 2026, Gemini logged roughly 368 million unique visitors, while ChatGPT drew approximately 777 million, according to the data cited by the brokerage.
Market-share dynamics have shifted notably over recent months. Gemini's share of unique visitors rose to just over 27% in March, a significant climb from the 13.8% level recorded in August 2025. Piper Sandler's analysis indicates that ChatGPT ceded the largest portion of share to Gemini during that interval. Anthropic's Claude showed gains as well, with share rising to 9.5% in March from 5.0% in February.
Prediction market activity has also reflected the changing competitive picture. Piper Sandler cites Polymarket data showing that Anthropic holds a 65% implied probability of being judged the best AI model by the end of June 2026, while Google's implied probability sits at 21%. That marks a sharp decline for Google from a 71% implied probability in February, with Anthropic overtaking Google in early March, the note reports.
Alongside the AI-model traffic shifts, Piper Sandler highlights ongoing pressure on Google's traditional search business. U.S. search traffic share for Google has been declining year-over-year, although the brokerage notes the rate of decline moderated in March. Specifically, Google's outbound search share in the U.S. in March moved to negative 1.8%, an improvement versus negative 3.1% in February. Globally, Google's search share was roughly flat on a year-over-year basis in March.
Microsoft's Bing is also showing steady gains, with year-over-year growth reaching 2.3% in March, according to the same data set cited by Piper Sandler.
Piper Sandler also draws attention to Meta's recent introduction of Muse Spark, described as the first product from Meta Superintelligence Labs. Early benchmarking referenced by the broker indicates Muse Spark represents a step-function improvement over Llama 4 Maverick. Piper Sandler notes the short timeline from the team's formation - nine months - to producing Muse Spark, and says it will monitor how Meta leverages its installed base of more than 3.5 billion daily active users to drive adoption of Meta AI.
Context and takeaways
The traffic and prediction-market signals cited by Piper Sandler paint a rapidly evolving competitive landscape for frontier AI models. Gemini's user-share gains and Anthropic's surge in prediction-market favor highlight shifting perceptions of model leadership, while developments from Meta add a further competitive variable.