Sterling and the euro edged slightly higher on Friday, but overall market appetite for risk remained fragile as an intensifying Gulf crisis and broader inflation concerns kept investors cautious.
At 08:31 ET (12:31 GMT), GBP/USD was trading up 0.16% at 1.3495 and EUR/USD had gained 0.08% to 0.8680. Despite these modest advances, both currency pairs faced notable headwinds heading into the weekend.
The prevailing macro story centers on the status of the Strait of Hormuz. While both Iran and the United States had declared the waterway open a week ago, the situation has shifted markedly. The US Navy’s blockade has effectively left the strait closed, a development that has kept oil prices elevated and refocused investor attention on stagflation risks.
ING strategist Chris Turner highlighted that short-dated yields remain firm on the expectation that central banks worldwide will need to act in response to the inflationary shock. That dynamic has made investors wary about running dollar-short positions into the weekend. ING sees the dollar index, DXY, biased toward the 99.15/20 area, with room to fill a gap up to 99.50 should an upside catalyst emerge.
The euro is characterized by ING as "feeling heavy," with Turner noting that two-year EUR/USD real rate differentials do not support the pair at its current levels. Markets continue to price a substantial probability - 67% - that the European Central Bank will deliver a rate hike in June. However, ING stresses that a single hike may not be enough to strengthen the euro; the ECB needs to get ahead of inflation expectations rather than simply match them. Today's German Ifo survey is the key domestic data point to watch, where consensus expects the expectations component to slip to 85.5 from 86. ING notes that any break below 85 would likely move markets, and it sees 1.1630 as the intraday direction of travel for EUR/USD.
Sterling found tangible support from a surprise pickup in UK retail spending. March retail sales rose 0.7% month-on-month, beating a consensus forecast of 0.2% and marking the strongest monthly increase since January 2024. That upside in consumer demand materially lowers near-term recession risk in the United Kingdom and pushes back the market's timeline for potential Bank of England rate cuts, providing a fundamental buffer for the pound even as global risk appetite remains subdued.
With the Federal Reserve in a pre-meeting blackout period, market participants looked to the University of Michigan final sentiment reading for additional directional cues. Any upward revision to the provisional 5- to 10-year inflation expectations number of 3.4% could further bolster the dollar. At the same time, any new developments in the Gulf could quickly reshape market positioning.
Market context
Small gains in GBP and EUR came against a backdrop of persistent uncertainty. Strong UK retail sales improved sterling's near-term prospects, while concerns about tighter global monetary policy and supply disruptions kept the dollar supported in parts of the market.