Business and information services shares have edged higher in recent weeks, according to Wolfe Research, with the Wolfe Business and Information Services Index up 4% month-to-date. That compares with a 1% rise in the S&P 500 and essentially flat performance in the S&P equal-weight index over the same period.
Wolfe suggested part of the sector's relative strength reflects a reallocation of capital away from AI-focused semiconductor names. The semiconductor sector, as measured by the SOXX index, has fallen about 11% month-to-date, and Wolfe said investors appear less worried about potential negative effects from artificial intelligence on business and information services firms.
The research note flagged FactSet's fiscal third quarter 2026 results earlier this month as showing early signs of AI-related monetization benefits, an observation Wolfe cited when assessing the broader opportunity set across the sector.
On macro conditions, Wolfe acknowledged that uncertainty was present through the second quarter. Nonetheless, the firm described several underlying fundamentals as stable or improving, specifically pointing to debt issuance, equity market performance, and lending volumes as areas that support the sector's outlook.
Heading into the second-quarter 2026 earnings season, Wolfe identified MSCI and S&P Global as its top picks. For MSCI, the firm emphasized momentum in recurring index subscription sales and increased adoption of custom indices by hedge funds and banks. Wolfe also noted that rising equity markets should support asset-based fee revenue at both MSCI and S&P Global.
Wolfe referenced second-quarter debt issuance data as a potential tailwind for S&P Global results, indicating upside to estimates. The firm expects positive issuance trends to be favorable for Moody's as well, while suggesting there may be greater scope for guidance improvement at S&P Global versus its peers.
On pricing and revenue drivers, Wolfe said consensus estimates remain conservative on pricing benefits at Fair Isaac. The research house maintained a moderately positive stance on TransUnion and Verisk ahead of their earnings reports.
Looking across the universe of business and information services companies covered, Wolfe projected that for the second quarter of 2026 four companies will exceed revenue estimates by more than 1%, nine will be in line with revenue expectations, and on earnings per share it anticipates seven beats, four in line, and two misses.
Note: The article presents Wolfe Research's views and projections as reported by the firm.