Futures linked to Canada’s principal equity bourse moved marginally higher early Tuesday, setting the stage for the last trading day of the second quarter and the first half of the year.
By 07:20 ET (11:20 GMT), the S&P/TSX 60 index standard futures contract had gained 4 points, a rise of roughly 0.2%.
On Monday, the S&P/TSX composite index finished down 0.5% at 34,823.82, though the measure remained positioned to record a 6.3% increase for the second quarter if gains held. That would mark the index’s eighth straight positive quarter, the longest streak since 1996.
U.S. futures and recent market drivers
U.S. equity futures were steadier in early trading. As of 07:40 ET, Dow futures had risen by 59 points, or about 0.1%, S&P 500 futures were up 11 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had advanced by 79 points, or roughly 0.3%.
On Monday, U.S. stocks climbed, buoyed largely by a rebound in technology names. That recovery came after recent market unease about the sustainability of elevated spending on AI chips and the data center infrastructure that supports artificial intelligence workloads had dented the sector last week.
Market participants also found some relief from a U.S. Supreme Court decision that blocked an effort by President Donald Trump to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over allegations of mortgage fraud.
Much of the market’s attention this week is concentrated on a key U.S. payrolls report due on Thursday. Traders expect that release to offer fresh signals on the economic outlook and potential path for interest rates ahead of U.S. markets closing for the Independence Day holiday on Friday.
Broad index performance and quarter-end context
The S&P 500 ended a five-session losing streak in the prior session and, with a single trading day remaining in the second quarter, was on track for its strongest quarterly showing since a recovery from a pandemic-related downturn six years ago. The Nasdaq Composite, which is weighted toward technology stocks, was positioned for a roughly 20% quarterly gain - its largest quarterly rise since the second quarter of 2020.
Year to date the S&P 500 had increased by about 8.5%, while the Nasdaq had advanced by approximately 11.1%.
Volatility characterized the previous quarter as shifting expectations around artificial intelligence investment and the rapid build-out of underlying infrastructure swung sentiment. Alongside these technology-driven moves, geopolitical developments played a consistent role in market swings.
Earlier this month, a framework memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran was signed, which eased some immediate tensions in the Middle East but did not resolve major outstanding issues. Technical discussions between the two sides were scheduled to take place in Qatar this week, Pakistan said, and uncertainty lingered over when higher-level negotiations might resume.
Commodities - oil and gold
By 07:27 ET, Brent crude futures had slipped about 0.3% to $72.93 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures inched up roughly 0.1% to $70.82 a barrel. Oil prices sat close to the levels seen prior to the escalation of hostilities in late February, although some analysts and policymakers have warned that inflationary effects from the earlier spike may still be filtering through the global economy.
Gold prices were on course for a pronounced quarterly decline. Spot gold was higher by 0.5% at $4,034.27 an ounce at 07:46 ET, with gold futures up about 0.2% at $4,047.00 per ounce. Despite the intraday uptick, spot gold was trading down by more than 11% in June and was poised for a fourth consecutive monthly drop, putting the metal on track for its largest quarterly fall since 2013.
Heightened expectations for persistent inflation and further rate increases have weighed on bullion, as higher interest-rate prospects tend to pressure non-yielding assets. The Federal Reserve struck a hawkish tone during its June meeting, with several officials signaling the possible need for another rate increase, a stance that strengthened the U.S. dollar and further pressured gold.
The weekend saw renewed military tensions in the Middle East, contributing to some lingering market unease. Technical talks between the U.S. and Iran were set to resume in Qatar, Pakistan said, even as questions remained about when more senior-level negotiations would restart. President Trump indicated that American officials would meet with Iranian counterparts in Doha on Tuesday, and Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff was reported to be en route to the Gulf country, according to CNN.
What traders are watching
- Final trading activity and quarter-end flows as markets close out the second quarter and the first half of the year.
- Thursday’s U.S. payrolls report, which could shape expectations for future interest-rate moves.
- Geopolitical developments and technical talks between the U.S. and Iran in Qatar, which may influence energy prices and risk sentiment.
As markets approach the half-year mark, small moves in futures and commodities reflected a broader mix of cautious optimism over quarterly gains and ongoing concern about inflation, central bank policy, and geopolitical risk.
Data points and market snapshots in this report refer to movement observed in early trading hours as specified in the article and to market positioning ahead of quarter-end and the U.S. holiday schedule.