Kepler Cheuvreux has upgraded Vestas Wind Systems A/S from "hold" to "buy", arguing the Danish turbine maker now offers a better risk-reward trade-off after share price weakness and a notable increase in order intake that the broker says is the strongest in almost six years.
Vestas shares are trading at 173.40 Danish crowns, while Kepler Cheuvreux’s target price sits at 200 crowns - implying roughly 15.3% potential upside. The company’s market capitalization is around 175.1 billion crowns.
The broker explicitly raised its recommendation because it sees stronger policy support for wind investment across Europe following what Kepler described as a second energy crisis in two years. According to the research note, policymakers have accelerated measures to back both onshore and offshore wind projects, with Germany named among the most active markets for such support.
Kepler also pointed to market fundamentals that it believes will help Vestas in coming years. Elevated power prices are expected to bolster the company's service business, turbine pricing has remained stable, and supply-chain conditions have normalised, the broker said.
On operational forecasts, Kepler Cheuvreux projects Vestas revenue of 21.44 billion in 2026, increasing to 22.40 billion in 2027 before a small decline to 22.34 billion in 2028. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to rise from 2.90 billion in 2026 to 3.16 billion in 2027, then ease to 3.11 billion in 2028. Adjusted EBIT forecasts are 1.70 billion, 1.91 billion and 1.87 billion for 2026-2028 respectively.
Kepler’s adjusted net profit estimates call for 1.26 billion in 2026, 1.42 billion in 2027 and 1.40 billion in 2028. The broker’s adjusted diluted earnings-per-share forecasts are 1.28, 1.47 and 1.45 across the same three-year span, compared with consensus estimates of 1.10, 1.40 and 1.60.
Free cash flow is forecast to remain at 1.71 billion in both 2026 and 2027, before declining to 1.46 billion in 2028. Kepler noted that Vestas itself targets an EBITA margin of 6%-8%, and the broker’s own estimate is 7.9%, supported by strong margins in the onshore equipment business, controlled overheads and reduced losses from offshore activities.
On valuation metrics Kepler estimates Vestas will trade at 18.1 times forecast 2026 earnings, declining to 15.8 times in 2027 and at 16.0 times in 2028. Enterprise value to EBITDA multiples are projected at 7.5 times in 2026, 6.9 times in 2027 and 7.0 times in 2028.
Kepler said its 2026 revenue projection sits near the upper end of Vestas’ guidance range, driven by higher onshore installation volumes and an increase in offshore bookings. The broker expects Vestas to report continued progress on its offshore ramp-up, steady pricing and supply-chain conditions, and solid onshore demand when it releases second-quarter results.
The research note also highlighted improvements in the services segment, citing contract extensions and expanded service agreements as contributors to margin stability and cash generation. Kepler added that cash flow should remain supported by customer prepayments and higher profitability, and that the company’s strengthened balance sheet should allow for ongoing shareholder returns.
Market context and near-term focus
For investors and market participants, the upgrade reflects a combination of macro policy support, operational momentum in order intake, and a financial outlook that shows rising earnings and cash generation through 2027 before a modest pullback in 2028. The broker’s target price and multiples quantify the upside case relative to current trading levels.
What to watch next
- Vestas’ second-quarter results, where Kepler expects confirmation of offshore ramp-up progress, stable pricing and healthy onshore demand.
- Developments in European policy measures for wind investment, which Kepler identified as a key supportive factor.
- Service business trends, including contract renewals and expansions that could support margins and cash flow.